Scattered showers & thunderstorms – wet on Sunday…

There were some dramatic skies as thunderstorms rolled across parts of the county yesterday around sunset…. Pic taken 6/23/2022

Friday – 24 Jun 2022 – 5:00pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday afternoon was 70 and today we hit 77. The low this morning was 47. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 35% and this afternoon it was 24%. Winds at the airfield peaked at 23mph yesterday evening and have hit 29mph today.

Side note: The Grand Junction radar is expected to down until 1 Jul for scheduled maintenance. We will rely heavily on satellite during this time.

Precip summary… Spotty showers and thunderstorms moved over parts of the county yesterday.

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall totals range from 0.04” to 0.33”. These rainfall amounts show how scattered the showers can be.*

*** Archuleta County and the San Juan National Forest have implemented STAGE 1 FIRE RESTRICTIONS. ***

Forecast discussion…

Things will ramp up again Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon with another good surge of monsoon moisture. Rainshowers and thunderstorms will peak on Sunday as the main part of the moisture plume moves over us.

The long range looks just like a typical monsoon pattern should: Wake up to lots of sun and bright blue skies. Cumulus clouds start developing by late morning, especially over the mountains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms hit a few parts of the county during the afternoon. Most of the clouds clear during the evening and we’re treated to a pretty sunset. If the monsoon cooperates, this will happen most days in July and August.

Satellite this afternoon: We are in a little dry slot between the moisture plume to our east and convective showers to our west. The high pressure will slowly move west, and the moisture plume will move west with it. The heart of the moisture plume will be over us on Sunday.

My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

NWS 66-hour precip shows 1” of rain in town and up to 1.8” in our mountains. Most of this precip will fall Sunday and into Monday afternoon. Precip will not be steady. It will come in waves with occasional heavy showers and thunderstorms.

NBM forecast precip through 4 Jul at 6am – This blend of multiple models indicates Pagosa Springs getting 2.24”. The forecast models are bouncing around between 1.80” to 2.50” during this period. It’s obvious where the monsoon moisture plume is expected.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
82	92 / 1990	38	26 / 1951

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next post will probably tomorrow afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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