Spotty showers & thunderstorms today and tomorrow…

We ended up with 0.35” north of town. Other parts of the county didn’t do as well… Pic taken 6/23/2022

Thursday – 23 Jun 2022 – 10:00am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday afternoon was 62. The low this morning was 54. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 47%. Winds at the airfield peaked at 25mph yesterday afternoon.

My forecast yesterday stunk. What went wrong?

Recap… First, I expected a few hours of steady rain, followed by a bit of clearing, and then scattered showers and thunderstorms later in the afternoon and into the evening. I expected most of the county to get 0.25” to 0.75” of rain.

Upper level winds turned slightly more westerly and pushed the first moisture plume to our east. The southeast part of the county and Chama did pretty good with the first round, but the rest of the county only got a little rain.

Then the clouds never broke up robbing us of a few degrees of warming which should have been fuel for the showers and thunderstorms I expected later.

Side note: As of 20 June, The Grand Junction radar will be down for TWO weeks. During this time, satellite is our best tool.

Precip summary… Some parts of the county did ok, but I expected more.

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall totals range from 0.03” to 0.58”*. Note: I added a few totals from Ambient weather sensors.

*** Archuleta County has implemented STAGE 1 FIRE RESTRICTIONS and the San Juan National Forest has implemented STAGE 2 FIRE RESTRICTIONS. ***

Forecast discussion…

Today and Friday will be drier, but hit-and-miss showers and thunderstorms will pop up each afternoon.

Things will ramp up again Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon with another good surge of monsoon moisture. Rainshowers and thunderstorms will peak on Sunday as the main part of the moisture plume moves over us.

Satellite this morning: We are on the western edge of the monsoon moisture plume. Unfortunately the plume will be pushed to our east as that low moves through northern UT. By Saturday afternoon the high will rebound and the moisture plume will push back to the west into our area. That round of sub-tropical moisture will peak on Sunday.

My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.26” of rain in town and up to 0.60” in our mountains. This precip will be spotty – some places will hardly get anything, and a few lucky spots could get double that. This is typical with our summertime showers and thunderstorms.

NBM forecast precip through 4 Jul at 6am – This blend of multiple models indicates Pagosa Springs getting 2.09”. The forecast model trend is slightly downward, though the GFS and Euro show a little more with 2.25” to 2.5” during this 10-day period. It’s obvious where the monsoon moisture plume is expected.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
82	92 / 1981	38	22 / 1951

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next post will probably tomorrow afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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