Most active today & tomorrow – Fewer showers on Independence Day…

Lots of folks tubing down the San Juan River through Pagosa Springs… Pic taken 6/30/2022

Lots of folks tubing down the San Juan River through Pagosa Springs… Pic taken 6/30/2022

Saturday – 2 Jul 2022 – 9:10am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 76. The low this morning was 51. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 32%. Winds at the airfield hit 21mph yesterday.

Precip summary… The best precip stayed closer to the mountains yesterday. Chama did best with nearly 1.10”. 

CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports ranged from 0 to 0.47”.  Welcome new CoCoRaHS observer Frank Snyder! You are in a good spot and we look forward to your data!
CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports ranged from 0 to 0.47”. 
Welcome new CoCoRaHS observer Frank Snyder! You are in a good spot and we look forward to your data!

Forecast discussion…

The upper level ridge axis is drifting back and forth, nearly over our heads.  We’re currently on the northern edge of monsoon moisture plume. Our best chances for precip are today and tomorrow and then they’ll decrease a bit Monday and Tuesday.Precipitable water and instability will peak tomorrow resulting in our wettest day of this 5-7 day period.

Independence Day – The moisture plume will be pushed a little to our east so there will be less shower and thunderstorm activity.

Expect a typical Pagosa Country summer day…  Wake up to lots of blue sky.  9-11am: Clouds will start developing, especially over the mountains.  11am-1pm: Scattered showers and thunderstorms over the mountains.  1-6pm: Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible anywhere in the county. After 6pm: Clouds will gradually clear – look for a pretty sunset!

The long range models continue to indicate a typical monsoon pattern with a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms nearly every day. Some days will be more active than others.

Water vapor satellite this morning: We’re on the northern edge of moisture plume.  It will stick with us today and tomorrow and then get pushed a little to our east on Monday. Our best chances for precip are today and tomorrow and then they’ll decrease a bit Monday and Tuesday.
Water vapor satellite this morning: We’re on the northern edge of the moisture plume.  It will stick with us today and tomorrow and then get pushed a little to our east on Monday. Our best chances for precip are today and tomorrow and then they’ll decrease a bit Monday and Tuesday.

My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.4” of rain in town and up to 1.25” in our mountains.  This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. A single cell can drop a bunch of rain and small hail over a small area in a hurry.
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.4” of rain in town and up to 1.25” in our mountains.  This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. A single cell can drop a bunch of rain and small hail over a small area in a hurry.
Euro 1-hour precip loop starting at 10am today and ending at 10pm on 4th of July – Showers and thunderstorms develop between noon and 1pm over the mountains each day and move over parts of the county from 1-6pm. Tonight and tomorrow night, spotty showers could linger overnight.
Euro 1-hour precip loop starting at 10am today and ending at 10pm on 4th of July – Showers and thunderstorms develop between noon and 1pm over the mountains each day and move over parts of the county from 1-6pm. Tonight and tomorrow night, spotty showers could linger overnight.
Euro ensemble precip through 12 Jul at 6am – The Euro model shows Pagosa Springs getting 1.12” for the 10-day period – a decreasing trend. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. A single slow moving cell can drop a quick half inch of rain or more in a small area.  Precip amounts with summer showers and thunderstorms vary considerably!
Euro ensemble precip through 12 Jul at 6am – The Euro model shows Pagosa Springs getting 1.12” for the 10-day period – a decreasing trend. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. A single slow moving cell can drop a quick half inch of rain or more in a small area.  Precip amounts with summer showers and thunderstorms vary considerably!

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8294 / 19904226 / 1951

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Mark will take over tomorrow.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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