Almost an inch in our rain gauge!… Pic taken 6/19/2022
Sunday – 19 Jun 2022 – 10:15am
The past…
At Stevens Field the high yesterday afternoon was 75. The low this morning was 54. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 28%. It was 100% most of the night! Winds at the airfield peaked at 22mph yesterday afternoon. We had reports of temporary gusts over 30mph with the showers and thunderstorms.
Area streams are rising and will continue to rise today.
Precip summary… Yay for rain!

*** Archuleta County has implemented STAGE 1 FIRE RESTRICTIONS and the San Juan National Forest has implemented STAGE 2 FIRE RESTRICTIONS. ***
Forecast discussion…
Our first monsoon surge is in place. Southerly moist flow is over our heads between a strong upper level high over the Central Plains and a trough moving through the Great Basin. Monday the trough will skirt to our north and temporarily dry us out. The good news is that the high will rebound quickly and continue to push sub-tropical moisture into our area for the foreseeable future!


My forecast…



WEATHER GEEK ALERT!
During summer our two primary forecast questions are: 1. Do we have moisture? 2. Is the atmosphere unstable? The products below help us answer those two questions.

This chart is read left to right with the most current time on the left. Times are in zulu.
The top shows precipitable water values for 50 runs of the Euro model. The more purple the better! The bottom graph shows the mean of the 50 data runs. We want to see those above 0.7” – where I added the red line. Today we’re above the red line and then tomorrow it drops well below. Moisture starts moving back in Tuesday afternoon and tries to stay above the red line the rest of the period.

This chart is read left to right with the most current time on the left. Times are in zulu.
The top chart shows cape values for 50 runs of the Euro model. The more blue, the better! The bottom graph shows the mean of the 50 data runs. We want these values to be above 200. So it’s unstable today, and then more stable tomorrow. It starts getting more unstable again Tuesday but is still below our 200 threshold. Thursday is plenty unstable at 300 and then it mostly stays above 200 the rest of the period.
These two products together indicate that for most of the next 14 days we have enough moisture (PWAT) and enough instability (Cape) for showers and thunderstorms nearly every day. This indicates a typical monsoon pattern – exactly what we want to see!
Pagosa Springs historical data
Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
80 | 93 / 1954 | 37 | 22 / 1908 |

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.
My next post will be tomorrow morning and I’ll include precip totals for the last three days.
– Shawn
2 Responses
That’s great news! Keep washing the cars daily!!
YES! And keep up those rain dances!