But wait, there’s more!

Falling rain

With a little help from Photoshop, I switched out rain for ice…

Saturday – 18 Jun 2022 – 9:30am

Archuleta County currently has Stage 1 Fire Restrictions

The San Juan National Forest has implemented STAGE 2 FIRE RESTRICTIONS.

Climate Info:

The high at Stevens Airfield yesterday was 82 degrees and the low this morning was 55. Our dew point has risen to 55 degrees, a great indicator that there is a lot of moisture on the surface. Winds at the airfield peaked at 46mph yesterday afternoon during one of our thunderstorms. Precipitation ranged from around a tenth to almost a half inch in our area. This was the first significant rainfall for most of us since April 4th! Thanks to all of you who posted your rainfall reports on Facebook!

Screenshot 2022 06 18 082009
Here are some of our COCORAHS rainfall reports over the past 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

Our Atmospheric River of Moisture continues…

No major changes in our weather scenario since yesterday. With a trough to our west and high pressure to our east, our atmospheric river of moisture will continue to move in from the south. We will continue to see a chance for morning and evening showers and afternoon thunderstorms today through Tuesday. Since yesterday’s storms were not as numerous as originally forecast, I think our totals through Monday will now be in the 1-2 inches range. As we saw yesterday, we could see winds gusting to over 40mph during thunderstorms. Hiking is discouraged in the afternoons because of the threat of lightning.

The one thing that has changed since yesterday, is even after the trough moves away from the California coast, high pressure to our east will continue to allow moisture to flow in from the south. While it won’t be as hefty as what we are seeing this weekend, it appears that we will not go into a dry period next week, but instead will continue to see monsoonal PM Poppers all week long. On any given day there will be 50/50 chance for someone’s backyard getting dumped on by an afternoon storm…it appears that we are indeed seeing an early monsoon this year!

Shawn eagerly takes over tomorrow…have a great and wet week! Mark Langford

Screenshot 2022 06 18 085607
Moisture continues to move into the mid-levels of the atmosphere (blue tones) this morning from the Pacific.
Screenshot 2022 06 18 090018
The latest NAM model run predicts that Precipitable Water will increase to nearly an inch today. “Precipitable water is the depth of water in a column of the atmosphere, if all the water in that column were precipitated as rain.”
Screenshot 2022 06 18 090654
Showers and some thunderstorms are already appearing on radar this morning to our south and southwest.
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The latest 3-day NWS forecast (Saturday-Monday). Circled are Pagosa Springs and Chama.
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The latest long range Euro model run is quite bullish on our monsoon continuing through at least early July! While these exact totals may not occur, it is great to see chances for rain every day from now through the rest of the month.
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Thanks to the Springs Resort for sponsoring our first monsoon storm!
Pagosa 5 day forecast 6 18
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *

Pagosa Springs historical data for June 18th

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8093 / 19543622 / 1950

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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