Dry today and then showers & thunderstorms the rest of the week …

There were some dramatic skies at times yesterday!… Pic taken 6/19/2022

Monday – 20 Jun 2022 – 9:45am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday afternoon was 62. The low this morning was 47. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 62%. It was 95-100% all night. Winds at the airfield peaked at 10mph yesterday afternoon. A few spots had 20-25mph winds with the showers and thunderstorms.

The Piedra River went from 75cfs to 605cfs and the San Juan River went from 115cfs to 660cfs. As of this morning both rivers have peaked and are slowly dropping.

Precip summary… CoCoRaHS 24-hour reports and 3-day totals are below. Most of the county got a good soaking!

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour reports range from 0.29” to 0.63”.*

*CoCoRaHS 3-day totals range from 1.11” to 2.12”. A couple of rain lottery winners were in the 2.30” to 2.50” range. I added these from the Ambient Weather sensor data.*

A HUGE thanks to Hillary Fredrickson for joining the CoCoRaHS team! Your data helps fill one of Archuleta County’s biggest data gaps. The next big data gap we’d like filled is ARBOLES. Here’s the link to learn more about this important program. Feel free to contact Pagosa Weather if you’re interested or have questions.

*** Archuleta County has implemented STAGE 1 FIRE RESTRICTIONS and the San Juan National Forest has implemented STAGE 2 FIRE RESTRICTIONS. ***

Forecast discussion…

Today a trough moving northeast through UT will push the moisture plume to our east and kick up the winds a bit. Starting Tuesday the high will rebound quickly and continue to push sub-tropical moisture into our area for the foreseeable future!

Satellite this morning: We are on the western edge of the moisture plume. It’s being pushed east by the trough over UT. The dry air to our west will move in today and then the moisture plume will gradually move back towards the west on Tuesday. The high pressure over the central Mississippi Valley will slowly move west towards OK. The green arrows indicate the subtropical moisture flowing clockwise around the high. As the high slides west, the moisture plume will move with it resulting in more showers and thunderstorms for us the rest of the week.

My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. — *** The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. ***

***With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.***

*NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.8” of rain in town and up to 1.5” in our mountains. None of this will fall today. Precip will be scattered tomorrow and then more widespread on Wednesday.*

NBM precip through 1 Jul at 6am – This blend of many of models expects Pagosa Springs to 2.68” of rain. The GFS expects 2.80” and the Euro has 2.77”. That is amazingly consistent for a 10-day period.

Euro precipitable water percent of average loop through 1 Jul at 6am – Green and blue indicate where the sub-tropical moisture plume is located. Today starts off dry, indicated by brown colors. Tomorrow and the rest of the period, the moisture plume stays in our area. It ebbs and flows with some days more moist than others. Wednesday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday are expected to be the wettest days.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
80	92 / 1989	37	28 / 1973

A HUGE thanks to the Springs Resort for sponsoring our first monsoon surge! — **A HUGE thanks to The Springs Resort for sponsoring our first monsoon surge!**

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Unless the forecast changes or something pops up, my next post will be on Wednesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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One Response

Pat Love says:

June 21, 2022 at 7:10 am

Thank you for this service. It’s interesting, relevant, helpful, and an asset to our community.

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