Smoke, dust and wind today…

Smoke

Smoke from the Pipeline fire near Flagstaff, AZ is obscuring Pagosa Peak this afternoon. The smoke may be replaced by dust later this afternoon.

Monday – 13 Jun 2022 – 1pm

San Juan River Basin- Including the city of Pagosa Springs 125 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022 …BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING… …WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING… * WHAT…For the Blowing Dust Advisory, visibility between one quarter mile and one mile in blowing dust. For the Wind Advisory, southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * WHERE…San Juan River Basin. * WHEN…For the Blowing Dust Advisory, until 8 PM MDT this evening. For the Wind Advisory, until 11 PM MDT this evening. * IMPACTS…Hazardous driving conditions due to reduced visibility. Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… Motorists should not drive into an area of blowing dust. Remember, Pull Aside, Stay Alive. Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

Climate Info…

The high at Stevens Airfield yesterday was 85 degrees. The low this morning was 48. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 11%. Winds at the airfield peaked at 33mph. There was no precipitation recorded in our area, but I did see a couple of rain drops yesterday at our place about a mile north of Hatcher Lake.

Red Flag
Red Flag Warning

RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS.

The National Weather Service in Grand Junction has issued a Red Flag Warning for gusty winds, low relative humidity and dry fuels, which is in effect from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Tuesday. * WINDS…For today, southwest 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. Cold front passage this evening will turn winds to the northwest. For Tuesday, west 25 to 35 mph with gusts 40 to 50mph. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY…9 to 14 percent. * IMPACTS…Conditions will be favorable for easy ignition and rapid spread of fires due to low relative humidity and strong gusty winds.

Archuleta County and the San Juan National Forest have implemented STAGE 1 FIRE RESTRICTIONS.

Smoke
Our air quality is in the yellow zone today thanks to the idiot that started the Pipeline fire near Flagstaff, AZ yesterday!

From yesterday: FLAGSTAFF, Ariz., June 12, 2022 – The Pipeline Fire which began 6 miles north of Flagstaff around 10 a.m. is currently estimated at 4,000-5,000 acres and was pushed more than 15 miles by strong winds throughout the day.

A 57-year-old male was arrested by Forest Service law enforcement officers earlier today in connection with the wildfire and charged with natural resource violations. The subject was booked into the Coconino County Sheriff’s Detention Facility.

“The investigation into the cause of the Pipeline Fire is ongoing and, in order to protect the integrity of the investigation, we cannot discuss any details of the investigation,” said Law Enforcement Patrol Captain Andy Pederson.

At this time, no structures or homes have been destroyed.

Forecast discussion…

Winds are already gusting to over 30mph as I type this update at noon. They are forecast to reach over 40mph this afternoon and early evening as a cold front and trough approach from the NW. Winds will be out of the SW today and tonight, then switch to the NW tomorrow. That should clear out our smoke and dust, but the winds will still be a factor, gusting to over 30mph. High temps will be in the low to mid 80’s today and the upper 70’s on Tuesday.

As I mentioned yesterday, later in the week, a strong trough will take up residence over the west coast and the “Hell High” that has been torturing the southern plains will allow subtropical moisture to start flowing into our area from the south by Friday. This should set up our first monsoon pattern for this season. While it may not be a permanent setup, it should give us at least 3-5 days of great chances for afternoon storms. Some of the models are already predicting over two inches of rain from Friday through Monday of next week! This will be convective activity so there will be daily rainfall winners and losers, but hopefully all of us will end up with some beneficial rain by next week. Longer range models continue the pattern for the rest of the month and into July…let’s hope they verify!

Screenshot 2022 06 13 122018
An approaching trough and cold front will increase our winds today and tomorrow and usher in a fun combo of smoke and dust this afternoon. Yellow indicates dry air aloft, so storms will not be part of this system.
Screenshot 2022 06 13 123120
As mentioned yesterday, a trough will set up to our west and a ridge to our east…perfect scenario for sub-tropical moisture to roll into our area!
Screenshot 2022 06 13 123549
The latest EURO model run continues to predict that Precipitable Water will increase to over an inch on Saturday. “Precipitable water is the depth of water in a column of the atmosphere, if all the water in that column were precipitated as rain.”
Screenshot 2022 06 13 125248
The latest Euro model run is predicting over 2 inches of rain for Pagosa Springs through next Monday!
Pagosa 5 day forecast 6 13 B
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *

Pagosa Springs historical data for June 13th

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7889 / 19563522 / 1951

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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2 Responses

  1. It seems like forever since we’ve had recordable moisture. Could you recap official totals for April, May and so far in June?

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