The winds are back, but a pattern change is on the way!

Curious

“Curious”, my pet tortoise since 1968 is enjoying the afternoon warmth in our backyard as some towering cumulus clouds build over Pagosa Peak yesterday. She will be hanging out with us this summer, before moving to Las Vegas where she will live with our youngest daughter in a climate better suited for a tortoise.

Sunday – 12 Jun 2022 – 9:30am

Climate Info…

Yesterday at Stevens Field, the high was 89 – just 5 degrees short of the record of 94. The low this morning was 50. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 12%. Winds at the airfield yesterday peaked at 30mph.

Red Flag 2
Red Flag Warnings have been issued for our area through midnight on Monday night.

…RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS

…RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM MDT MONDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER.

WINDS…Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts 30 to 40 mph today. Southwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts 50 to 60 mph on Monday. Cold front passage late Monday will turn winds to the northwest. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY…6 to 11 percent. * IMPACTS…Conditions will be favorable for easy ignition and rapid spread of fires due to low relative humidity and strong gusty winds.

Archuleta County and the San Juan National Forest have implemented STAGE 1 FIRE RESTRICTIONS.

Forecast discussion…

Thanks to an approaching late season cold front, winds will ramp up this afternoon, tomorrow and tomorrow night until the front passes on early Tuesday. Expect wind gusts to over 30mph today and exceeding 40mph on Monday along with a chance for dust. High temps will remain in the mid to upper 80’s today and tomorrow. Unfortunately, all of the moisture from this system will stay to our north, as usual. On a positive note, high temps will return to closer to average (upper 70’s) on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Later in the week, a strong trough will take up residence over the west coast and the “Hell High” that has been torturing the southern plains will allow subtropical moisture to start flowing into our area from the south by Friday. This should set up our first monsoon pattern for this season. While it may not be a permanent setup, it should give us at least 3-5 days of great chances for afternoon storms. Some of the models are already predicting over an inch of rain from Friday through the middle of the following week. This will be convective activity so there will be daily rainfall winners and losers, but hopefully all of us will end up with some beneficial rain by next week. Longer range models continue the pattern for the rest of the month and into July…let’s hope they verify!

Screenshot 2022 06 12 074658
An approaching trough and cold front will increase our winds today and tomorrow. By Tuesday, our high temperatures will drop back into the upper 70’s and low 80’s.
Screenshot 2022 06 12 082616 1
A trough will set up to our west and a ridge to our east…perfect scenario for sub-tropical moisture to roll into our area!
Screenshot 2022 06 12 082635
Precipitable Water will increase to over an inch on Saturday. “Precipitable water is the depth of water in a column of the atmosphere, if all the water in that column were precipitated as rain.”
Screenshot 2022 06 12 085749
The latest GFS model run is predicting almost 2 inches of rain for Pagosa Springs through next Tuesday!
Pagosa 5 day forecast 6 12b
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *

Pagosa Springs historical data for June 12th

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7898 / 19463519 / 1951

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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Mark Langford

Mark Langford

I consider myself a "weather journalist" who has been studying and following meteorology since taking an earth science class in eighth grade. Later, when I became a professional commercial photographer, I learned that my continued studies in meteorology helped me plan outdoor photo assignments. I'm now a semi-retired photographer who teaches photo workshops, goes storm chasing and of course enjoys photographing great landscapes and clouds in our area. My fine art photography can be seen here: https://fineartamerica.com/profiles/1-mark-langford
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