Red Flag Warnings Sunday and Monday…

HUGE thanks to Warriors Mountain River Adventures, Sohum Mountain Ranch, and everyone who helped host a wonderful veterans’ event… Pic taken 6/10/2022

HUGE thanks to Warriors Mountain River Adventures, Sohum Mountain Ranch, and everyone who helped host a wonderful veterans’ event… Pic taken 6/10/2022

Friday – 10 Jun 2022 – 8:00pm

Sohum Mountain Ranch generously hosted a group of veterans with Warriors Mountain River Adventures. Thanks to all!

The past…

At Stevens Field the high this afternoon was 88 – 7 degrees short of the record of 95. However, the warm spots did peak around 95 today. The low this morning was 46. Humidity this afternoon bottomed out at 11%. Winds at the airfield peaked at 32mph this afternoon.

Precip summary… A few spots got some raindrops yesterday!

CoCoRaHS 24-hour reports show “T’ and 0” in Archuleta County. I actually saw a couple of small puddles yesterday from about Hatcher Lake and a mile or two south. The rain lottery winners were South Fork and Del Norte on the other side of The Divide.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour reports show “T’ and 0” in Archuleta County. I actually saw a couple of small puddles yesterday from about Hatcher Lake to a mile or two south. The rain lottery winners were South Fork and Del Norte on the other side of The Divide.

*** Archuleta County and the San Juan National Forest have implemented STAGE 1 FIRE RESTRICTIONS. ***

Forecast discussion…

The upper level ridge is hanging tight over the region. There is a band of moisture across central AZ that will try to move our direction tomorrow.  It could be enough to kick up an afternoon shower or thunderstorm over the mountains, but I’m not expecting much of anything.

Another wind-making system will scoot across the northern Rockies Monday and Tuesday. Just like most of the systems the last couple of months, the moisture and precip will stay to our north and we’ll just get winds.  Very dry conditions and strong winds will result in critical fire danger.

** Expect RED FLAG WARNINGS on Sunday and Monday **

Yep, it’s warm – Highs are 10-15 degrees above average. However, I don’t expect us to break the record high temps. These are the record highs for the next few days:

10 Jun: 95

11 Jun: 94

12 Jun: 98

Today and tomorrow will be the warmest days and then we’ll start to cool. On Monday high temps will be around 5 degrees above average and then near average on Tuesday.

Long range forecast models continue to hint at our first monsoonal surge of moisture starting around 17 or 18 June – yay!

Satellite this afternoon: The ridge is keeping us dry and too stable for showers and thunderstorms.  That band of moisture across central AZ will move our direction tomorrow and could kick up a shower or thunderstorm in the mountains.
Satellite this afternoon: The ridge is keeping us dry and too stable for showers and thunderstorms.  That band of moisture across central AZ will move our direction tomorrow and could kick up a shower or thunderstorm in the mountains.

My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
Euro ensemble precip through 25 Jun at 6am – The map shows Pagosa getting 0.89” rain! The bottom chart shows the precip starting around 17 or 18 Jun.
Euro ensemble precip through 25 Jun at 6am – The map shows Pagosa getting 0.89” rain! The bottom chart shows the precip starting around 17 or 18 Jun.
GFS ensemble precip through 25 Jun at 6am – The map shows Pagosa getting 1.02” rain! The bottom chart shows the precip starting on 17 Jun.
GFS ensemble precip through 25 Jun at 6am – The map shows Pagosa getting 1.02” rain! The bottom chart shows the precip starting on 17 Jun.
More optimistic evidence from the Climate Prediction Center – The 8-14 day precip outlook also expects above average precip.
More optimistic evidence from the Climate Prediction Center – The 8-14 day precip outlook also expects above average precip.

This looks more and more like our first monsoonal surge of moisture. Things are lining up nicely in the upper levels, but moisture and instability are still marginal.  This is typical in the early stages of our monsoon. The result is scattered showers and thunderstorms that can miss much of the county and just favor a few lucky spots.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7695 / 19483422 / 1950

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Mark will do the next post on Sunday unless something pops up.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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