Wind will wind down…next comes the rain!

Bear

Shortly before sunset yesterday, I photographed this large black bear along Coyote Loop Trail…a reminder that it is “Bear Season”!

Tuesday – 14 Jun 2022 – 2:30pm Flag Day!

RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 291, 293, 294, AND 295… * AFFECTED AREA…In Colorado, Fire Weather Zone 291 Northern San Juan Forecast Area, Fire Weather Zone 293 Gunnison Basin Forecast Area, Fire Weather Zone 294 Southwest Colorado Upper West Forecast Area and Fire Weather Zone 295 Southwest Colorado Upper East Forecast Area. * WINDS…West 15 to 25 mph with gusts 35 to 45 mph. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY…10 to 15 percent. * IMPACTS…Conditions will be favorable for easy ignition and rapid spread of fires due to low relative humidity and strong gusty winds.

Red Flag
Red Flag Warning

Archuleta County and the San Juan National Forest have implemented STAGE 1 FIRE RESTRICTIONS.

Smoke 1
Our air quality is in the green today thanks to a slight change in our wind direction and less smoke from the three fires (Pipeline, Haywire and Double) near Flagstaff.

Climate Info:

The high at Stevens Airfield yesterday was 83 degrees. The low this morning was 50. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 12%. Winds at the airfield peaked at 39mph. There was no precipitation recorded in our area.

Forecast discussion…

This should be our last day of 30mph wind gusts (except during thunderstorms this weekend) for quite a while. Typical afternoon breezes over 20mph will be back on Wednesday and Thursday, along with our wonderful late spring weather.

By Friday, a strong trough will take up residence over the west coast and the “Hell High” that has been torturing the southern plains will allow subtropical moisture to start flowing into our area from the south. This is setting up to be a “Monsoon Preview”, instead of the real deal. Most models are still predicting 1-2 inches of rain from Friday through Monday with the best odds on Sunday and Monday. I’m hoping that the two tropical systems in the eastern Pacific may add some extra octane to our southerly flow and boost our precipitable waters. If so, we might end up with more rain than what the models are currently forecasting.

By Tuesday of next week, the trough will have moved east, and we will be back to a drier pattern (still a chance for some PM Poppers) for at least a few days. Some long-range models are bringing back rain chances by next weekend and starting the traditional monsoon pattern…let’s hope they are correct! As always, this will be convective activity so there will be daily rainfall winners and losers, but hopefully all of us will end up with some beneficial rain by early next week.

My next post will be Thursday unless something dramatic changes!

Moisture
By Friday, a trough will set up to our west and a ridge to our east…perfect scenario for sub-tropical moisture to roll into our area! This forecast graphic is for Sunday, when our rain odds will ramp up.
Blas
I’m hoping that Hurricane-Tropical Storm Blas (who came up with that name?) will add some additional moisture into our atmosphere this weekend as it moves NW.
PW
The latest EURO model run continues to predict that Precipitable Water will increase to over an inch on Sunday. “Precipitable water is the depth of water in a column of the atmosphere, if all the water in that column were precipitated as rain.”
Euro total
The latest Euro model run is still predicting over 2 inches of rain for Pagosa Springs through next Monday!
GFS Ext
The latest GFS long range model is predicting over 3 inches of rain by July 10th.
Pagosa 5 day forecast 6 14
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *

Pagosa Springs historical data for June 14th

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7890 / 19473523 / 1951

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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