Shortly before sunset yesterday, I photographed this large black bear along Coyote Loop Trail…a reminder that it is “Bear Season”!
Tuesday – 14 Jun 2022 – 2:30pm Flag Day!
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 291, 293, 294, AND 295… * AFFECTED AREA…In Colorado, Fire Weather Zone 291 Northern San Juan Forecast Area, Fire Weather Zone 293 Gunnison Basin Forecast Area, Fire Weather Zone 294 Southwest Colorado Upper West Forecast Area and Fire Weather Zone 295 Southwest Colorado Upper East Forecast Area. * WINDS…West 15 to 25 mph with gusts 35 to 45 mph. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY…10 to 15 percent. * IMPACTS…Conditions will be favorable for easy ignition and rapid spread of fires due to low relative humidity and strong gusty winds.
Archuleta County and the San Juan National Forest have implemented STAGE 1 FIRE RESTRICTIONS.
The high at Stevens Airfield yesterday was 83 degrees. The low this morning was 50. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 12%. Winds at the airfield peaked at 39mph. There was no precipitation recorded in our area.
This should be our last day of 30mph wind gusts (except during thunderstorms this weekend) for quite a while. Typical afternoon breezes over 20mph will be back on Wednesday and Thursday, along with our wonderful late spring weather.
By Friday, a strong trough will take up residence over the west coast and the “Hell High” that has been torturing the southern plains will allow subtropical moisture to start flowing into our area from the south. This is setting up to be a “Monsoon Preview”, instead of the real deal. Most models are still predicting 1-2 inches of rain from Friday through Monday with the best odds on Sunday and Monday. I’m hoping that the two tropical systems in the eastern Pacific may add some extra octane to our southerly flow and boost our precipitable waters. If so, we might end up with more rain than what the models are currently forecasting.
By Tuesday of next week, the trough will have moved east, and we will be back to a drier pattern (still a chance for some PM Poppers) for at least a few days. Some long-range models are bringing back rain chances by next weekend and starting the traditional monsoon pattern…let’s hope they are correct! As always, this will be convective activity so there will be daily rainfall winners and losers, but hopefully all of us will end up with some beneficial rain by early next week.
My next post will be Thursday unless something dramatic changes!
Pagosa Springs historical data for June 14th
|Average High||Record High / Year||Average Low||Record Low / Year|
|78||90 / 1947||35||23 / 1951|
Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.
Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.