A spotty shower or two tomorrow & Saturday…

It’s amazing that flowers are blooming in spite of hardly any rain!… Pic taken 6/8/2022

It’s amazing that flowers are blooming in spite of hardly any rain!… Pic taken 6/8/2022

Wednesday – 8 Jun 2022 – 4:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday afternoon was 82 and so far today we hit 86 – just one degree short of the record of 87. The warm spots peaked at 90 & 91 today. The low this morning was 44. I didn’t see any temps below freezing this morning. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 12% and this afternoon it’s 11%. Winds at the airfield yesterday afternoon peaked at 31mph and today they hit 30mph.

Precip summary… None in the last 24 hours.

*** Archuleta County and the San Juan National Forest have implemented STAGE 1 FIRE RESTRICTIONS. ***

Weather Underground temps at 4:07pm this afternoon were mostly in the mid-80s with a max of 90 in town.
Weather Underground temps at 4:07pm this afternoon were mostly in the mid-80s with a max of 90 in town.

Forecast discussion…

The upper level flat or “dirty ridge” is sticking with us. We’ll continue to see mid and upper level clouds and scattered cumulus clouds will develop in the afternoons. Afternoon winds will continue to be gusty and high temps will be 10-15 degrees above average.

Tomorrow and Saturday we could catch the northern edge of a little afternoon convective activity with spotty showers and thunderstorms. Consider yourself lucky if you get a few drops of rain.

Please keep an eye out for lightning and watch closely for smoke, not just the day it happens, but also the next couple of days.  Call 911 if you spot smoke.

Long range forecast models continue to hint at our first monsoonal surge of moisture starting around 18 June – yay!

It’s going to be warm, but I don’t expect us to break the record high temps. These are the record highs for the next 5 days:

8 Jun: 92

9 Jun: 90

10 Jun: 95

11 Jun: 94

12 Jun: 98

I expect our warmest days to be Friday and Saturday, 10 & 11 Jun, but it won’t be hot enough to break those records – thank goodness! There is a slight chance that we break the record of 90 tomorrow, 9 Jun.

Satellite this afternoon: We’re stuck in the middle between some moisture and a few showers in NM and a little moisture to northwest and north. We might catch the northern edge of those spotty showers currently in NM tomorrow and Saturday but forecast confidence is low.
Satellite this afternoon: We’re stuck in the middle between some moisture and a few showers in NM and a little moisture to northwest and north. We might catch the northern edge of those spotty showers currently in NM tomorrow and Saturday but forecast confidence is low.

My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
Euro ensemble precip through 23 Jun at 6am – The map shows Pagosa getting 0.76” rain! The bottom chart shows the precip starting around 17 or 18 Jun.
Euro ensemble precip through 23 Jun at 6am – The map shows Pagosa getting 0.76” rain! The bottom chart shows the precip starting around 17 or 18 Jun.
GFS ensemble precip through 23 Jun at 6am – The map shows Pagosa getting 0.68” rain! The bottom chart shows the precip starting on 17 Jun.
GFS ensemble precip through 23 Jun at 6am – The map shows Pagosa getting 0.68” rain! The bottom chart shows the precip starting on 17 Jun.

This looks more and more like our first monsoonal surge of moisture. Things are lining up nicely in the upper levels, but moisture and instability are still marginal.  This is typical in the early stages of our monsoon. The result is scattered showers and thunderstorms that can miss much of the county and just favor a few lucky spots.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7592 / 19463417 / 1950

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Unless something pops up, my next post will be on Friday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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