Spotty mountain showers on Thursday and then near record heat through the weekend…

Beautiful morning for a hike!… Pic taken 6/6/2022

Beautiful morning for a hike!… Pic taken 6/6/2022

Monday – 6 Jun 2022 – 3:15pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday afternoon was 79 and so far today we hit 80. The low this morning was 43. Nearly all of us stayed above freezing but a couple cold spots briefly dipped to 32. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 16% and this afternoon it’s 15%. Winds at the airfield yesterday afternoon peaked at 27mph and today they hit 33mph.

Precip summary… None in the last 24 hours.

*** Archuleta County and the San Juan National Forest have implemented STAGE 1 FIRE RESTRICTIONS. ***

Forecast discussion…

The upper level flat or “dirty ridge” is sticking with us. We’ll continue to see mid and upper level clouds and a few cumulus clouds will develop in the afternoons. Afternoon winds will continue to be gusty.

The pattern is slowly getting more unstable, as it should this time of year. Unfortunately, we are still missing an influx of moisture.

Long range forecast models are hinting at our first monsoonal surge of moisture starting around 17 or 18 June – yay!

Potential for record high temps?  These are the record highs for the next 6 days:

7 Jun: 87

8 Jun: 92

9 Jun: 90

10 Jun: 95

11 Jun: 94

12 Jun: 98

I expect our warmest days to be 10, 11, and 12 Jun, but it won’t be hot enough to break those records – thank goodness! There is a slight chance that we break the record of 87 tomorrow, 7 Jun, and another slight chance to beat the record of 90 on Thursday, 9 Jun. We’ll probably hear about other locations breaking records, but I doubt we’ll break records here in Pagosa Springs.

Satellite this afternoon: Patches of clouds keep moving through our area as they try to climb over the “dirty ridge”. There is just enough instability and moisture to kick up a couple of showers over northern and eastern CO, but not over southwest CO.
Satellite this afternoon: Patches of clouds keep moving through our area as they try to climb over the “dirty ridge”. There is just enough instability and moisture to kick up a couple of showers over northern and eastern CO, but not over southwest CO.

My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
NBM precip through 17 Jun at noon: This blend of various models expects no precip for southwest Colorado and most of the desert southwest. Other models expect a little in our area. I see potential for a few spotty afternoon showers, but I don’t see any soakers anytime soon.
NBM precip through 17 Jun at noon: This blend of various models expects no precip for southwest Colorado and most of the desert southwest. Other models expect a little in our area.  I see potential for a few spotty afternoon showers, but I don’t see any soakers anytime soon.
The Euro 15-day ensemble precip: The Euro and a couple of other forecast models expect the pattern to start getting more active around the 17th or 18th. Is this the first surge of monsoon moisture? It’s too early to say.
The Euro 15-day ensemble precip: The Euro and a couple of other forecast models expect the pattern to start getting more active around the 17th or 18th. Is this the first surge of monsoon moisture?  It’s too early to say.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7592 / 19463424 / 1951

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Unless something pops up, my next post will be on Wednesday.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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2 Responses

  1. Better than being in Houston TX right now; 95 F, 65% humidity. Last week it was 99 / 99 weather; 99 degree F, 99% humidity……..stifling heat!

    Reply

    1. Oh I agree Frank! Plus here in our mountain paradise, it cools off nicely every night. I bet there aren’t many folks in Texas sleeping with their windows open!

      Reply

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