Nice to see snow on the mountains – they’ll get a little more…

Fresh snow on Pagosa Peak… Pic taken 5/21/2022 at 8:30am

Saturday – 21 May 2022 – 1:30pm

Plumtaw Fire update…

As of this morning, 21 May 2022, the Plumtaw Fire is still at 735 acres – amazing!

Multiple agencies are involved and aggressively fighting the fire. For updates follow “Plumtaw Fire” or “USDA Forest Service – San Juan National Forest” or “Archuleta County, CO Sheriff’s Office” on Facebook and this link on InciWeb.

A HUGE thanks to the San Juan National Forest crew and everybody else that is aggressively tackling the fire!

Smoke and air quality this morning…

*The three sensors all indicate that the air quality is “good”.*

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday afternoon was 69 and the low this morning was 42. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 17%. Winds yesterday afternoon peaked at 46mph at 2:35pm. In O’Neal Park we hit 40mph.

Precip summary… A couple of lucky spots got just enough to wet the ground, but most of us got none. The mountains got 2” to 3” of snow. One of our favorite weather observers, Mary, estimated 2” on Wolf Creek Pass. Based on web cams, snow had a hard time sticking on the pass and it looked just wet most of the morning.

It’s a different story for other parts of Colorado.

*CoCoRaHS 24hr snowfall totals for Colorado – There are some impressive snow totals!*

Forecast discussion…

*** Archuleta County and the San Juan National Forest have implemented a STAGE 1 FIRE RESTRICTIONS. ***

It’s still snowing over south-central Colorado, but the storm is winding down.

The pattern will stay unsettled through Tuesday as the jet stream meanders over northern Colorado and pushes a couple of troughs through the region. The northern Colorado mountains and Front Range will continue to be favored for moisture and precip. We’ll get a few scraps, so it’s better than nothing! Though winds won’t be as strong, they’ll still be gusty because the jet stream is lingering nearby.

*Satellite this afternoon: The trough stalled to our north and is weakening.*

*Radar this afternoon: As of 11:30am there were still a few bands of snow across south-central Colorado but they’re slowly weakening.*

My forecast…

*** The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. ***

*NBM precip through midnight on Tuesday – Just 0.02” is expected for Pagosa and up to 0.40” in our mountains. The Euro model expects a little more, but at this point, I agree with the NBM.*

This is Euro ensemble wind gusts to 4 June at 6pm – The top shows wind gusts for 50 different runs of the Euro model. I focus on the bottom which shows the mean of those runs. The chart is read left to right with the most current time on the left. Times are in Zulu. I added the max wind speeds every day at 00Z/6PM for clarity. Our peak winds usually occur between 18Z and 00Z. I look at numerous products for different forecast parameters. A good forecaster will then verify those products and their forecast against what actually happened. Right now this product is handling daily peak wind gusts very well. Example: yesterday this product expected 41mph at Stevens Field and the actual observed peak wind was 46mph – within 5mph is decent and was better other forecast models. Looking ahead, this ensemble forecast model expects peak winds in the 30-35mph range through Tuesday. Then we get a brief break the middle of the week with winds peaking around 20mph. — This is Euro ensemble wind gusts to 4 June at 6pm – The top shows wind gusts for 50 different runs of the Euro model. I focus on the bottom which shows the mean of those runs. The chart is read left to right with the most current time on the left. Times are in Zulu. I added the max wind speeds every day at 00Z/6PM for clarity. Our peak winds usually occur between 18Z and 00Z.

I look at numerous products for different forecast parameters. A good forecaster will then verify those products and their forecast against what actually happened. Right now this product is handling daily peak wind gusts quite well. Example: yesterday this product expected 41mph at Stevens Field and the actual observed peak wind was 46mph – within 5mph is decent and was better other forecast models.

*Looking ahead, this ensemble forecast model expects peak winds in the 30-35mph range through Tuesday. Then we get a brief break the middle of the week with winds peaking around 20mph.*

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
69	81 / 1984	32	15 / 1974

Mark your calendars…

Pagosa Weather is doing a presentation at the Ruby M. Sisson Memorial Library on Thursday, 26 May at 6pm. We’d love to meet you and answer questions!

Pagosa Weather is also setting up a “meet and greet” booth at the Ski & Bow Rack on Friday, 27 May from noon to 4pm. Come say hi!

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Mark will take over tomorrow.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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2 Responses

Frank Snyder says:

May 21, 2022 at 5:01 pm

I would post the AQI readings from my meter in Hidden Valley over the past few days but alas……I cannot attach a file

Reply
1. Mark Langford says:
  
  May 23, 2022 at 10:29 am
  
  You can e-mail them to pagosaweather@gmail.com
  
  Reply

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