Cool and breezy with a tiny chance for PM Poppers…

Flowers

Our Pansies and Violas are enjoying some morning sunshine.

Sunday – 22 May 2022 – 9:30am

Plumtaw Fire update…

Incident Type: Wildfire
Percent Contained: 12%
Size: 735 acres
More Fire Information: Via Inciweb
Last Updated: 11 Hours Ago

Multiple agencies are involved and aggressively fighting the fire.  For updates follow “Plumtaw Fire” or “USDA Forest Service – San Juan National Forest” or “Archuleta County, CO Sheriff’s Office” on Facebook and this link on InciWeb.

A HUGE thanks to the San Juan National Forest crew and everybody else that is aggressively tackling the fire!

Smoke and air quality this morning…

Screenshot 2022 05 22 080902
Our three sensors all indicate that the air quality is “good”. Here is the big picture showing the fires in New Mexico and smoke being transported across Texas and the plains.

Climate Info…The high at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 63 and the low this morning was 43. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 22%. Winds yesterday afternoon peaked at 35mph at 1:35pm. There was no precipitation recorded yesterday.

Forecast discussion…

*** Archuleta County and the San Juan National Forest have implemented a STAGE 1 FIRE RESTRICTIONS. ***

The Jetstream remains locked in place to our north and another trough will arrive this afternoon, giving us a tiny chance for some showers and possibly a few scattered thunderstorms. There will mainly be “mountain hugger” showers and storms associated with this system. Cooler air will filter in behind the front, keeping our highs only in the low 60’s for the next couple of days. It will unfortunately mainly be a wind producer for us, with winds gusting to over 30mph once again! There is a chance for some snow showers in the mountains through Tuesday, but totals will likely be less than an inch.

Look for a similar scenario on Monday-Tuesday morning as yet another trough moves through. By Wednesday, high pressure builds over us and we should see closer to normal highs with less wind for the remainder of the workweek. Unfortunately, it looks like the high winds may return by this weekend.

Screenshot 2022 05 22 082648
Another trough will arrive this afternoon. Mid-level water vapor indicates there is very little moisture for this system to work with.

My forecast…

Pagosa 5 day forecast 5 22 22
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
Screenshot 2022 05 22 083836
The latest rainfall forecast from the NWS is predicting wimpy totals for us over the next 3 days. Circled towns are Pagosa Springs and Chama. There will be some snow in the mountains, but likely less than 1 inch.
Screenshot 2022 05 22 084430
The latest 30-day forecast, issued on the 19th, doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in a pattern change for June.

Pagosa Springs historical data for 5-22.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7080 / 19843220/ 1974

Mark your calendars…

Pagosa Weather is doing a presentation at the Ruby M. Sisson Memorial Library on Thursday, 26 May at 6pm.  We’d love to meet you and answer questions!

Pagosa Weather is also setting up a “meet and greet” booth at the Ski & Bow Rack on Friday, 27 May from noon to 4pm.  Come say hi!

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

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4 Responses

  1. AQI in Hidden Valley was over 90 for 4 houses this morning…..fire is still smoking and fouling the atmosphere here.

    1. Thanks for the update. The Air-Now fire and smoke map that we use does not have the AQI info you are referring to. Please feel free to post those readings let me know how to find them.

  2. Perhaps I’m missing it. In your forecast I only see high temps, not lows. Where can I find the forecast for low temps?
    Thanks

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