Warm and dry through the week…

Tommy basking in the morning sun under clear skies… Pic taken 5/14/2022

Tommy basking in the morning sun under clear skies… Pic taken 5/14/2022

Saturday – 14 May 2022 – 10:45am

A HUGE thanks to Mrs Hinger and her wonderful 8th grade science students for inviting us to delve into air mass formations and Pagosa Country snow patterns!

We enjoyed discussing weather with Mrs Hinger’s 8th grade science students!
We enjoyed discussing weather with Mrs Hinger’s 8th grade science students!

The past…

Highs yesterday were mostly in the mid-60s to low 70s. Lows this morning were mostly in the mid-20s to mid-30s though the upper Piedra hit 19. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out around 10%. Winds yesterday afternoon were mostly in the low to mid 20mph range.

Precip summary… None in the last 24 hours.

Mark your calendars…

Pagosa Weather is doing a presentation at the Ruby M. Sisson Memorial Library on Thursday, 26 May at 6pm.  We’d love to meet you and answer questions!

Pagosa Weather is also setting up a “meet and greet” booth at the Ski & Bow Rack on Friday, 27 May from noon to 4pm.  Come say hi!

Forecast discussion…

High pressure will take over and bring us warmer temps, breezy afternoons, and dry weather for the rest of the week.

The models are getting a little more optimistic for a slightly more active pattern starting around the 22nd and potentially to the end of the month. It’s not impressive but it gives me something to keep an eye on.

Satellite this morning: Skies are nearly clear over the entire Four Corners region. The NM fires aren’t putting out much smoke this morning (yellow circle) but that will likely change this afternoon when winds pick up.
Satellite this morning: Skies are nearly clear over the entire Four Corners region. The NM fires aren’t putting out much smoke this morning (yellow circle) but that will likely change this afternoon when winds pick up.
Fire and smoke map this morning: The fires in NM continue to be the primary producers of smoke but that smoke is staying well away from us. A few fires have popped up recently in Colorado.  Just northeast of Durango yesterday, the “Ute Pass Fire” blew up near a neighborhood and grew quickly to 30 acres.  A neighborhood was evacuated, and a few others were put in pre-evacuation status. Thankfully an aggressive attack got it under control last night. Most of the recent fires are “under investigation”, but… *** Not having a campfire or not taking care of your burn pile is an inconvenience.  Burning down a neighborhood or a good chunk of forest would impact a lot of people.  It’s not worth it! ***
Fire and smoke map this morning: The fires in NM continue to be the primary producers of smoke but that smoke is staying well away from us.

A few fires have popped up recently in Colorado.  Just northeast of Durango yesterday, the “Ute Pass Fire” blew up near a neighborhood and grew quickly to 30 acres.  A neighborhood was evacuated, and a few others were put in pre-evacuation status. Thankfully an aggressive attack got it under control last night. Most of the recent fires are “under investigation”, but…

*** Not having a campfire or not taking care of your burn pile is an inconvenience.  Burning down a neighborhood or a good chunk of forest would impact a lot of people.  It’s not worth it! ***

My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
This is forecast precip through 23 May at 6pm for the three primary forecast models that I look at every day: NBM top center, Euro ensemble bottom left, and GFS ensemble bottom right. Observations… 1. The storm track will stay to our north. 2. The NBM, a blend of various models, consistently expects no precip over southern Colorado. 3. The Euro has 0.07” for Pagosa that occurs on 21 and 22 May.  4. The GFS is slowly getting more moist with 0.17” for Pagosa that occurs 21-23 May. 5. Right now it looks similar to the last system that moved through with mostly wind and dust. 6.  And good news… The GFS and Euro expect the pattern to stay active through the last week of May.
This is forecast precip through 23 May at 6pm for the three primary forecast models that I look at every day: NBM top center, Euro ensemble bottom left, and GFS ensemble bottom right.

Observations… 1. The storm track will stay to our north. 2. The NBM, a blend of various models, consistently expects no precip over southern Colorado. 3. The Euro has 0.07” for Pagosa that occurs on 21 and 22 May.  4. The GFS is slowly getting more moist with 0.17” for Pagosa that occurs 21-23 May. 5. Right now it looks similar to the last system that moved through with mostly wind and dust. 6.  And good news… The GFS and Euro expect the pattern to stay active through the last week of May.
Euro ensemble wind gusts to 28 May at 6pm – The top shows wind gusts for 50 different runs of the Euro model.  I focus on the bottom which shows the mean of those runs.  The chart is read left to right with the most current time on the left.  Times are in Zulu.  I added the max wind speeds every day at 00Z/6PM for clarity.  Our peak winds usually occur between 18Z and 00Z. Peak winds through Wednesday will be in the 20-30mph range – typical for this time of year. Winds will pick up next Thursday, Friday, and Saturday ahead of the next system.
Euro ensemble wind gusts to 28 May at 6pm – The top shows wind gusts for 50 different runs of the Euro model.  I focus on the bottom which shows the mean of those runs.  The chart is read left to right with the most current time on the left.  Times are in Zulu.  I added the max wind speeds every day at 00Z/6PM for clarity.  Our peak winds usually occur between 18Z and 00Z.

Peak winds through Wednesday will be in the 20-30mph range – typical for this time of year. Winds will pick up next Thursday, Friday, and Saturday ahead of the next system.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6784 / 19843015 / 1953

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next post will be on Monday unless something pops up.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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