Tommy basking in the morning sun under clear skies… Pic taken 5/14/2022
Saturday – 14 May 2022 – 10:45am
A HUGE thanks to Mrs Hinger and her wonderful 8th grade science students for inviting us to delve into air mass formations and Pagosa Country snow patterns!

The past…
Highs yesterday were mostly in the mid-60s to low 70s. Lows this morning were mostly in the mid-20s to mid-30s though the upper Piedra hit 19. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out around 10%. Winds yesterday afternoon were mostly in the low to mid 20mph range.
Precip summary… None in the last 24 hours.
Mark your calendars…
Pagosa Weather is doing a presentation at the Ruby M. Sisson Memorial Library on Thursday, 26 May at 6pm. We’d love to meet you and answer questions!
Pagosa Weather is also setting up a “meet and greet” booth at the Ski & Bow Rack on Friday, 27 May from noon to 4pm. Come say hi!
Forecast discussion…
High pressure will take over and bring us warmer temps, breezy afternoons, and dry weather for the rest of the week.
The models are getting a little more optimistic for a slightly more active pattern starting around the 22nd and potentially to the end of the month. It’s not impressive but it gives me something to keep an eye on.


A few fires have popped up recently in Colorado. Just northeast of Durango yesterday, the “Ute Pass Fire” blew up near a neighborhood and grew quickly to 30 acres. A neighborhood was evacuated, and a few others were put in pre-evacuation status. Thankfully an aggressive attack got it under control last night. Most of the recent fires are “under investigation”, but…
*** Not having a campfire or not taking care of your burn pile is an inconvenience. Burning down a neighborhood or a good chunk of forest would impact a lot of people. It’s not worth it! ***
My forecast…


Observations… 1. The storm track will stay to our north. 2. The NBM, a blend of various models, consistently expects no precip over southern Colorado. 3. The Euro has 0.07” for Pagosa that occurs on 21 and 22 May. 4. The GFS is slowly getting more moist with 0.17” for Pagosa that occurs 21-23 May. 5. Right now it looks similar to the last system that moved through with mostly wind and dust. 6. And good news… The GFS and Euro expect the pattern to stay active through the last week of May.

Peak winds through Wednesday will be in the 20-30mph range – typical for this time of year. Winds will pick up next Thursday, Friday, and Saturday ahead of the next system.
Pagosa Springs historical data
Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
67 | 84 / 1984 | 30 | 15 / 1953 |
Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.
My next post will be on Monday unless something pops up.
– Shawn