Hard freeze tonight – Breezy afternoons and dry…

Windy and cold up at Big Meadows today!… Pic taken 5/12/2022

Windy and cold up at Big Meadows today!… Pic taken 5/12/2022

Thursday – 12 May 2022 – 7:00pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp yesterday afternoon was 73. Data has been missing since 5:15am this morning so the low temp for the airfield is not available. The lowest relative humidity yesterday afternoon was 11%. The peak wind at the airfield on Tuesday was 41mph and on Wednesday it was 35mph.

Precip summary… None in the last 24 hours.

Announcements…

Win a $50 gift certificate towards a hot air balloon ride with Rocky Mountain Balloon Adventures! Soaring hundreds or maybe even thousands of feet over Pagosa Country is an unforgettable treat! How high will they fly this summer?  Get your guess in before tomorrow, Friday, 13 May 2022 at 11:59pm. Add your guess to the comments of the Facebook contest post at this link, or add your guess as a comment on the contest web post here.

Mark your calendars…

Pagosa Weather is doing a presentation at the Ruby M. Sisson Memorial Library on Thursday, 26 May at 6pm.  We’d love to meet you and answer questions!

Pagosa Weather is also setting up a “meet and greet” booth at the Ski & Bow Rack on Friday, 27 May from noon to 4pm.  Come say hi!

Forecast discussion…

The trough finally moved through this morning. Temps are about 10 degrees cooler, and the winds are a bit weaker – no dust today!

High pressure will take over and bring us warmer temps, breezy afternoons, and dry weather for the next 7 days.

The models are getting a little more optimistic for a slightly more active pattern starting around the 21st. It’s not impressive but it gives me something to keep an eye on.

Satellite this afternoon: There were very few clouds in our area today.  Scattered mid and upper level clouds are moving into western UT and those clouds will continue to move east overnight.
Satellite this afternoon: There were very few clouds in our area today.  Scattered mid and upper level clouds are moving into western UT and those clouds will continue to move east overnight.
Fire and smoke map this afternoon: Thankfully there is no smoke in our area.  As long as a new fire doesn’t blow up to our southwest or west, it will stay that way.
Fire and smoke map this afternoon: Thankfully there is no smoke in our area.  As long as a new fire doesn’t blow up to our southwest or west, it will stay that way.

My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
This is forecast precip through 22 May at midnight for the three primary forecast models that I look at every day: NBM top center, Euro ensemble bottom left, and GFS ensemble bottom right. Observations… 1. The storm track will stay to our north. 2. The NBM, a blend of various models, expects the least precip. 3. The Euro has 0.04” for Pagosa that falls on the 20th and 21st.  4. The GFS has 0.06” for Pagosa that also falls on the 20th and 21st. 5. Right now it looks similar to the last system that moved through with mostly wind and dust.
This is forecast precip through 22 May at midnight for the three primary forecast models that I look at every day: NBM top center, Euro ensemble bottom left, and GFS ensemble bottom right.

Observations… 1. The storm track will stay to our north. 2. The NBM, a blend of various models, expects the least precip. 3. The Euro has 0.04” for Pagosa that falls on the 20th and 21st.  4. The GFS has 0.06” for Pagosa that also falls on the 20th and 21st. 5. Right now it looks similar to the last system that moved through with mostly wind and dust.
Euro ensemble wind gusts to 27 May at 6am – The top shows wind gusts for 50 different runs of the Euro model.  I focus on the bottom which shows the mean of those runs.  The chart is read left to right with the most current time on the left.  Times are in Zulu.  I added the max wind speeds every day at 00Z/6PM for clarity.  Our peak winds usually occur between 18Z and 00Z. Peak winds for the next 6 days will be in the 20-30mph range – typical for this time of year. Winds will pick up next Thursday, Friday, and Saturday ahead of the next system.
Euro ensemble wind gusts to 27 May at 6am – The top shows wind gusts for 50 different runs of the Euro model.  I focus on the bottom which shows the mean of those runs.  The chart is read left to right with the most current time on the left.  Times are in Zulu.  I added the max wind speeds every day at 00Z/6PM for clarity.  Our peak winds usually occur between 18Z and 00Z.

Peak winds for the next 6 days will be in the 20-30mph range – typical for this time of year. Winds will pick up next Thursday, Friday, and Saturday ahead of the next system.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6782 / 19962920 / 1948

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next post will be on Saturday unless something pops up.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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