One more windy, dusty day tomorrow and then back to “normal”…

Area streams are high with runoff. The San Juan River nearly hit 2,000cfs recently… Pic taken 5/10/2022

Area streams are high with runoff. The San Juan River nearly hit 2,000cfs recently… Pic taken 5/10/2022

Tuesday – 10 May 2022 – 4:00pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp yesterday afternoon was 67. The low this morning was 38. The lowest relative humidity yesterday afternoon was 13%. The peak wind at the airfield on Sunday was 41mph, on Monday it was 39mph, and so far today it has hit 41mph.

Precip summary… None in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

An upper level low pressure system currently over northern California will move a little south and then take a turn towards the northeast and track over Utah.  Meanwhile a pesky ridge hangs tight over the southern Plains and Mississippi Valley. The moisture and precip will miss the southwest US but we’re stuck in the middle where winds will continue cranking.

The trough will finally move through Thursday morning and bring us a few more clouds. Behind the trough we’ll see cooler temps and finally weaker winds!

Unfortunately I don’t see any significant pattern change for at least the next 10 days. Precip looks minimal to non-existent, winds will be breezy most afternoons, and humidity will stay low.

*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a Red Flag Warning for critical fire conditions valid until 10pm this evening and again tomorrow from 11am to 11pm. ***

Satellite this afternoon: There are a few little cumulus clouds and patches of cirrus over our area. I had to look real close to see just a little dust being kicked up to our southwest. It will hardly be noticeable if it makes this far. There is no noticeable smoke upstream in Arizona. The smoke from the New Mexico fires is moving into southeast Colorado. There are just scattered showers associated with the low pressure system.
Satellite this afternoon: There are a few little cumulus clouds and patches of cirrus over our area. I had to look real close to see just a little dust being kicked up to our southwest. It will hardly be noticeable if it makes this far. There is no noticeable smoke upstream in Arizona. The smoke from the New Mexico fires is moving into southeast Colorado. There are just scattered showers associated with the low pressure system.
Fire and smoke map this afternoon: The fires upstream in AZ are nearly fully contained and hardly putting out any smoke. The NM fires continue put out a bunch of smoke that is moving towards the northeast. As long as a fire doesn’t blow up to our southwest or west, we shouldn’t see any smoke.
Fire and smoke map this afternoon: The fires upstream in AZ are nearly fully contained and hardly putting out any smoke. The NM fires continue put out a bunch of smoke that is moving towards the northeast. As long as a fire doesn’t blow up to our southwest or west, we shouldn’t see any smoke.

My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
This is forecast precip through next Friday, 20 May, at 6am for the three primary forecast models that I look at every day: NBM top center, Euro bottom left, and GFS bottom right. Observations… 1. The storm track will stay to our north. 2. The NBM, a blend of various models, expects the least precip. 3. The Euro has a few spotty raindrops over our mountains. 4. The GFS is the most optimistic with 0.05” for Pagosa and up to 0.25” of precip in our mountains. 5. Unfortunately I agree with the NBM – I don’t see any precip for us over the next 10 days.
This is forecast precip through next Friday, 20 May, at 6am for the three primary forecast models that I look at every day: NBM top center, Euro bottom left, and GFS bottom right.

Observations… 1. The storm track will stay to our north. 2. The NBM, a blend of various models, expects the least precip. 3. The Euro has a few spotty raindrops over our mountains. 4. The GFS is the most optimistic with 0.05” for Pagosa and up to 0.25” of precip in our mountains. 5. Unfortunately I agree with the NBM – I don’t see any precip for us over the next 10 days.
Euro ensemble wind gusts to 25 May at 6am – The top shows wind gusts for 50 different runs of the Euro model.  The bottom shows the mean of those runs.  The chart is read left to right with the most current time on the left.  Times are in Zulu.  I added the max wind speeds every day at 00Z/6PM for clarity.  Our peak winds usually occur between 18Z and 00Z. After we get through tomorrow, winds will peak around 25mph each day for about a week – more typical for this time of year.
Euro ensemble wind gusts to 25 May at 6am – The top shows wind gusts for 50 different runs of the Euro model.  The bottom shows the mean of those runs.  The chart is read left to right with the most current time on the left.  Times are in Zulu.  I added the max wind speeds every day at 00Z/6PM for clarity.  Our peak winds usually occur between 18Z and 00Z. After we get through tomorrow, winds will peak around 25mph each day for about a week – more typical for this time of year.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6782 / 19892918 / 1950

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next post will be Thursday afternoon unless something pops up.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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