Area streams are high with runoff. The San Juan River nearly hit 2,000cfs recently… Pic taken 5/10/2022
Tuesday – 10 May 2022 – 4:00pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temp yesterday afternoon was 67. The low this morning was 38. The lowest relative humidity yesterday afternoon was 13%. The peak wind at the airfield on Sunday was 41mph, on Monday it was 39mph, and so far today it has hit 41mph.
Precip summary… None in the last 24 hours.
Forecast discussion…
An upper level low pressure system currently over northern California will move a little south and then take a turn towards the northeast and track over Utah. Meanwhile a pesky ridge hangs tight over the southern Plains and Mississippi Valley. The moisture and precip will miss the southwest US but we’re stuck in the middle where winds will continue cranking.
The trough will finally move through Thursday morning and bring us a few more clouds. Behind the trough we’ll see cooler temps and finally weaker winds!
Unfortunately I don’t see any significant pattern change for at least the next 10 days. Precip looks minimal to non-existent, winds will be breezy most afternoons, and humidity will stay low.
*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a Red Flag Warning for critical fire conditions valid until 10pm this evening and again tomorrow from 11am to 11pm. ***


My forecast…


Observations… 1. The storm track will stay to our north. 2. The NBM, a blend of various models, expects the least precip. 3. The Euro has a few spotty raindrops over our mountains. 4. The GFS is the most optimistic with 0.05” for Pagosa and up to 0.25” of precip in our mountains. 5. Unfortunately I agree with the NBM – I don’t see any precip for us over the next 10 days.

Pagosa Springs historical data
Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
67 | 82 / 1989 | 29 | 18 / 1950 |
Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.
My next post will be Thursday afternoon unless something pops up.
– Shawn
One Response
Hi you are aces, Shawn. Thank you for your forecast and your service.