Dry, warm, & breezy – winds to 40mph possible Thursday & Friday…

Pagosa Weather forecaster and professional photographer Mark Langford captured this beautiful image of the lunar eclipse last night.

Monday – 16 May 2022 – 9:15am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp yesterday was 80. The low this morning was 42. The upper Piedra bottomed out at 27 this morning but most of us were above freezing. Humidity late yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 9%. Winds yesterday afternoon peaked at 20mph at the airfield though we hit 27mph just north of Turkey Springs.

Precip summary… None in the last 24 hours.

Mark your calendars…

Pagosa Weather is doing a presentation at the Ruby M. Sisson Memorial Library on Thursday, 26 May at 6pm. We’d love to meet you and answer questions!

Pagosa Weather is also setting up a “meet and greet” booth at the Ski & Bow Rack on Friday, 27 May from noon to 4pm. Come say hi!

Forecast discussion…

A weak trough will move through this afternoon. It lacks moisture and will be even weaker when it moves through but could kick up an isolated shower over the mountains.

Wednesday another weak trough will move through and could kick up an isolated shower or two over the mountains.

Thursday and Friday the next system will stay to our north but bump our winds to around 40mph. Expect another round of Red Flag Warnings.

The models are getting a little more optimistic for a slightly more active pattern starting the 21st or 22nd and potentially to the end of the month. It’s not impressive but it gives me something to keep an eye on.

Satellite this morning: Mid and upper level clouds are moving into the region ahead of a trough to the southwest. For the last few days I wasn’t expecting anything from the trough but now it might hold together enough to kick up an afternoon shower or two over the mountains today.

Fire and smoke map this morning: This is the HRRR smoke forecast model. The map on the left is valid at 9am this morning and the map on the right is valid at 6pm this evening. The fires in southwest NM were active yesterday and put out a lot of smoke. Then some of that smoke moved north overnight into our area. This afternoon westerly winds will push the smoke out of our area. Most of the recent fires are “under investigation”, but… *** Not having a campfire or not taking care of your burn pile is an inconvenience. Burning down a neighborhood or a good chunk of forest would impact a lot of people. It’s not worth it! *** — Fire and smoke map this morning: This is the HRRR smoke forecast model. The map on the left is valid at 9am this morning and the map on the right is valid at 6pm this evening. The fires in southwest NM were active yesterday and put out a lot of smoke. Then some of that smoke moved north overnight into our area. This afternoon westerly winds will push the smoke out of our area. Most of the recent fires are “under investigation”, but…

*** Not having a campfire or not taking care of your burn pile is an inconvenience. Burning down a neighborhood or a good chunk of forest would impact a lot of people. It’s not worth it! ***

My forecast…

*** The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. ***

This is forecast precip through 27 May at 6am for the three primary forecast models that I look at every day: NBM top center, Euro ensemble bottom left, and GFS ensemble bottom right. Observations… 1. The storm track will stay to our north. 2. The NBM, a blend of various models, consistently expects very little precip over southern Colorado. 3. The Euro has 0.22” for Pagosa that starts on the 21st and then there’s a chance for a little each day. 4. The GFS has 0.16” for Pagosa that also starts on the 21st and then there’s a chance for a little each day. 5. The Thursday/Friday system looks similar to the last system that moved through with mostly wind and dust. 6. And good news… The GFS and Euro expect the pattern to stay active through the last week of May. — *This is forecast precip through 27 May at 6am for the three primary forecast models that I look at every day: NBM top center, Euro ensemble bottom left, and GFS ensemble bottom right.*

Observations… 1. The storm track will stay to our north. 2. The NBM, a blend of various models, consistently expects very little precip over southern Colorado. 3. The Euro has 0.22” for Pagosa that starts on the 21^st and then there’s a chance for a little each day. 4. The GFS has 0.16” for Pagosa that also starts on the 21^st and then there’s a chance for a little each day. 5. The Thursday/Friday system looks similar to the last system that moved through with mostly wind and dust. 6. And good news… The GFS and Euro expect the pattern to stay active through the last week of May.

Euro ensemble wind gusts to 30 May at 6pm – The top shows wind gusts for 50 different runs of the Euro model. I focus on the bottom which shows the mean of those runs. The chart is read left to right with the most current time on the left. Times are in Zulu. I added the max wind speeds every day at 00Z/6PM for clarity. Our peak winds usually occur between 18Z and 00Z. Peak winds through Wednesday will be in the 20-30mph range – typical for this time of year. Winds will pick up Thursday and Friday as the next system moves through. And then it looks we’re in for a long of stretch of 25-30mph winds. — Euro ensemble wind gusts to 30 May at 6pm – The top shows wind gusts for 50 different runs of the Euro model. I focus on the bottom which shows the mean of those runs. The chart is read left to right with the most current time on the left. Times are in Zulu. I added the max wind speeds every day at 00Z/6PM for clarity. Our peak winds usually occur between 18Z and 00Z.

Peak winds through Wednesday will be in the 20-30mph range – typical for this time of year. Winds will pick up Thursday and Friday as the next system moves through. And then it looks like we’re in for a long of stretch of 25-30mph winds.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
68	85 / 1988	30	14 / 1916

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next post will be on Wednesday unless something pops up.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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One Response

Frank Snyder says:

May 16, 2022 at 3:33 pm

Where is the rain…it is getting very dry!

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