Spotty showers and a thunderstorm or two Wednesday, otherwise dry…

Buckskin Gulch near Kanab, Utah… Pic taken 4/25/2022

Monday – 25 Apr 2022 – 7:45pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp yesterday afternoon was 51 and today it was 57. The low this morning was 25. Yesterday the cold spots dropped to around 10 and this morning the cold spots were in the mid-teens. The peak wind at the airfield yesterday afternoon was 28mph and this afternoon it was 22mph.

Precip summary… None in the last 24 hours

Forecast discussion…

A weak trough will move through Wednesday afternoon. Winds will tick up a notch and instability will increase enough to kick up spotty showers and an isolated thunderstorm.

Friday the next trough will miss us to the north but kick up our winds a bit again.

Satellite this evening: A few mid and upper level clouds are moving through the Four Corners region. The ridge will move over our heads tomorrow morning. That means upper level southwest flow will increase and help bump up our winds. Wednesday’s little trough will spin off the base of the main trough off the West Coast.

My forecast…

Wednesday – Spotty showers and an isolated thunderstorm are possible late morning to mid-afternoon. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * *LE = liquid equivalent — ***Wednesday – Spotty showers and an isolated thunderstorm are possible late morning to mid-afternoon.***

*** The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. ***

*NBM precip through Wednesday at midnight shows 0.03” for Pagosa, 0.08” for Chama, and up to 0.15” in our mountains.*

Euro ensemble wind gusts to 10 May at 6am – The top shows wind gusts for 50 different runs of the Euro model. The bottom shows the mean of those runs. The chart is read left to right with the most current time on the left. Times are in Zulu. I put *s at 00Z/6PM each day. Keep in mind that our peak winds usually occur between 18Z and 00Z.

*The average peak winds are 25-30mph each day for the next 15 days.*

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
61	75 / 1981	25	11 / 1960

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next post will be on Wednesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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