Windy today with humidity in the teens – PLEASE NO FIRES!…

Sunrise view of Monument Valley… Pic taken 4/21/2022

Sunrise view of Monument Valley… Pic taken 4/21/2022

Friday – 22 Apr 2022 – 9:50am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp yesterday afternoon was 70. The low this morning was 39. The peak wind at the airfield yesterday afternoon was 23mph.

Fire and smoke map this morning… A smoke plume from the active fires burning near Flagstaff and Prescott continues to move over western Colorado.
Fire and smoke map this morning… A smoke plume from the active fires burning near Flagstaff and Prescott continues to move over western Colorado.

Precip summary… There has been no recent precip.

Forecast discussion…

*** The Grand Junction National Weather Service has issued a Wind Advisory valid 10am this morning to 6pm this evening for winds gusting to 50mph. *** My wind forecast for us: Winds today will start getting gusty between 10 and 11am.  Our strongest winds, occasionally peaking around 50mph, will be between noon and 8pm.

There are Red Flag Warnings all around us, which include our neighbors to the south in NM. Why not us?  Our “fuels”, vegetation and forest duff, are greening up, fairly moist, and not too flammable.  *** In my opinion, today’s strong winds and low humidity in the teens, will overcome those moist fuels and fires will get of control very very quickly. ***

PLEASE NO FIRES!

The next system will move through this afternoon and this evening.  Clouds, winds, and scattered showers will increase this afternoon. The snow level will start around 9,500ft and then drop down to 6,500ft shortly after midnight tonight. Unfortunately, the northern mountains are favored – we’ll just get the scraps and wind.

A few hit and miss showers will develop over the mountains on Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

Monday and Tuesday will be typical sunny and pleasant spring days with breezy afternoon winds.

Satellite this morning: The low currently over central NV will move northeast.  The tailing trough/cold front will move through our area this evening. Clouds, winds, scattered showers, and a thunderstorm or two are possible ahead of the system.
Satellite this morning: The low currently over central NV will move northeast.  The tailing trough/cold front will move through our area this evening. Clouds, winds, scattered showers, and a thunderstorm or two are possible ahead of the system.

My forecast…

Today – It will be windy and fire danger will be very high!  Our best chance for scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm is late afternoon and evening. Some areas could see a quick burst of all types of precip: rain, snow, small hail, graupel, and ice pellets. The snow level will drop rapidly behind the cold front, but unfortunately, the precip will become even more spotty. A dusting of snow could stick in the grassy areas and then melt shortly after. Saturday and Sunday afternoons – It won’t be as windy, and showers will be more spotty and mostly over the mountains. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * *LE = liquid equivalent
Today – It will be windy and fire danger will be very high!  Our best chance for scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm is late afternoon and evening. Some areas could see a quick burst of all types of precip: rain, snow, small hail, graupel, and ice pellets. The snow level will drop rapidly behind the cold front, but unfortunately, the precip will become even more spotty. A dusting of snow could stick in the grassy areas tonight and then melt shortly after.

Saturday and Sunday afternoons – It won’t be as windy, and showers will be more spotty and mostly over the mountains.

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * *LE = liquid equivalent
Euro liquid equivalent through Saturday at midnight shows 0.09” for Pagosa and up to 0.30” in our mountains. Most of this precip falls late Friday afternoon and evening.  Note the higher precip amounts in the northern mountains - we just get the scraps and winds.
Euro liquid equivalent through Saturday at midnight shows 0.09” for Pagosa and up to 0.30” in our mountains. Most of this precip falls late Friday afternoon and evening.  Note the higher precip amounts in the northern mountains – we just get the scraps and winds.
Euro snowfall through Saturday at midnight shows 0.6” for Pagosa, 2” for Chama, and 2-4” in our mountains. Chama will be lucky to get an inch.  Snow will stick mostly on grass and melt shortly after falling.
Euro snowfall through Saturday at midnight shows 0.6” for Pagosa, 2” for Chama, and 2-4” in our mountains. Chama will be lucky to get an inch.  Snow will stick mostly on grass and melt shortly after falling.
Euro wind gusts Friday at 4pm shows 49mph for Pagosa, 51mph for Chama, and 51mph for Durango. This model and other models show a peak of 60mph for Durango.
Euro wind gusts Friday at 4pm shows 49mph for Pagosa, 51mph for Chama, and 51mph for Durango. This model and other models show a peak of 60mph for Durango.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6176 / 1989258 / 1967

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next post will be tomorrow morning.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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