Winds to 50mph on Friday…

We’re out exploring southern Utah. Recognize this view of Monument Valley made famous in Forest Gump?… Pic taken 4/20/2022

We’re out exploring southern Utah. Recognize this view of Monument Valley made famous in Forest Gump?… Pic taken 4/20/2022

Wednesday – 20 Apr 2022 – 7:50pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp this afternoon was 67. The low this morning was 38. The peak wind at the airfield yesterday afternoon was 38mph and today’s peak wind was 27mph.

** Be careful with fire! Winds will get gusty in wind prone areas every afternoon between 11 and noon. **

Fire and smoke map this afternoon… The fires in AZ have been active and are putting out a sizeable smoke plumb.  The plumb is just to our south but will shift into our area tonight.
Fire and smoke map this afternoon… The fires in AZ have been active and are putting out a sizeable smoke plumb.  The plumb is just to our south but will shift into our area tonight.

Precip summary… There has been no recent precip.

Forecast discussion…

Through tomorrow a flat ridge will stay over the region and give us dry and breezy weather.

The next system will move through Friday and Saturday morning.  Clouds, winds, and scattered showers will increase Friday afternoon. The snow level will start around 9,500ft and then drop down to 7,000ft by sunrise on Saturday. Unfortunately, the northern mountains are favored – we’ll just get the scraps and wind.

Hit and miss showers will continue to move through the mountains on Saturday and Sunday.

Satellite this afternoon: A smoke plumb from the AZ fires is to our south and could shift further north into our area tonight.
Satellite this afternoon: A smoke plumb from the AZ fires is to our south and could shift further north into our area tonight.

My forecast…

Friday – It will be windy!  Scattered PM rain showers will gradually turn to snow after midnight with snow down to 7,000ft by sunrise on Saturday.  A dusting of snow could stick in the grassy areas. Saturday and Sunday – It won’t be as windy, and showers will be more spotty and mostly over the mountains. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * *LE = liquid equivalent
Friday – It will be windy!  Scattered PM rain showers will gradually turn to snow after midnight with snow down to 7,000ft by sunrise on Saturday.  A dusting of snow could stick in the grassy areas.

Saturday and Sunday – It won’t be as windy, and showers will be more spotty and mostly over the mountains.

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * *LE = liquid equivalent
NBM liquid equivalent through Sunday at midnight shows 0.03” for Pagosa and up to 0.25” in our mountains. Most of this precip falls Friday afternoon to Saturday afternoon.  Note the higher precip amounts in the northern mountains - we just get the scraps and winds.
NBM liquid equivalent through Sunday at midnight shows 0.03” for Pagosa and up to 0.25” in our mountains. Most of this precip falls Friday afternoon to Saturday afternoon.  Note the higher precip amounts in the northern mountains – we just get the scraps and winds.
NBM snowfall through Sunday at midnight shows 0.4” for Pagosa, 0.6” for Chama, and 2-3” in our mountains. Most of this precip falls Friday afternoon to Saturday afternoon.
NBM snowfall through Sunday at midnight shows 0.4” for Pagosa, 0.6” for Chama, and 2-3” in our mountains. Most of this precip falls Friday afternoon to Saturday afternoon.
Euro wind gusts Friday at 2pm shows 45mph for Pagosa, 43mph for Chama, and 54mph for Durango. That’s the most the Euro shows for Pagosa, but Durango and Chama both see stronger winds an hour or two later.
Euro wind gusts Friday at 2pm shows 45mph for Pagosa, 43mph for Chama, and 54mph for Durango. That’s the most the Euro shows for Pagosa, but Durango and Chama both see stronger winds an hour or two later.

** Like all forecast products, we compare these to other products, compare them to recent events, compare them to our experience with similar systems during this time of year, consider how the system will interact with our terrain (a biggie!), and then make appropriate adjustments. **

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6178 / 19892511 / 1941

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next post will be from Kanab UT on Friday if we don’t get blown away!

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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