Windy and dry through Thursday – very windy Friday with scattered pm showers…

A golden sunset over Pagosa Country… Pic taken 4/18/2022

Tuesday – 19 Apr 2022 – 3:00pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp yesterday afternoon was 68. The low this morning was 33. The peak wind at the airfield yesterday afternoon was 28mph. As of 2:35pm, the peak wind so far today is 35mph.

** Be careful with fire! Winds will get gusty in wind prone areas every afternoon between 11 and noon. **

Fire and smoke map this afternoon… Most fire activity is currently to our south and east. There have a been a couple of fires in Colorado that were quickly brought under control. — *Fire and smoke map this afternoon… Most fire activity is currently to our south and east. There have recently been a couple of fires in Colorado that were quickly brought under control.*

Precip summary… There has been no recent precip.

Forecast discussion…

Today through Thursday a flat ridge will stay over the region and give us dry and windy weather.

The next system will move through Friday and Saturday. Clouds, winds, and scattered showers will increase Friday afternoon. The snow level will start around 9,500ft and then drop down to 7,000ft by sunrise on Saturday. Unfortunately, the northern mountains are favored – we’ll just get the scraps and wind.

Satellite this afternoon: It looks complicated but isn’t. The key is the strong flow between the high to the south and low to the north. A strong southwest to northwest jetstream will push most of the moisture with the next system to our north. And anytime the jetstream is in our area this time of year, we will have gusty winds.

My forecast…

Friday – It will be windy! Scattered PM rain showers will gradually turn to snow after midnight with snow down to 7,000ft by sunrise on Saturday. A dusting of snow could stick in the grassy areas. Saturday – It won’t be quite as windy, and showers will be more spotty and mostly over the mountains. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * *LE = liquid equivalent — Friday – It will be windy! Scattered PM rain showers will gradually turn to snow after midnight with snow down to 7,000ft by sunrise on Saturday. A dusting of snow could stick in the grassy areas.

***Saturday – It won’t be as windy, and showers will be more spotty and mostly over the mountains.***

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * *LE = liquid equivalent

NBM liquid equivalent through Saturday at midnight shows 0.02” for Pagosa and up to 0.25” in our mountains. Most of this precip falls Friday afternoon to Saturday afternoon. Note the higher precip amounts in the northern mountains - we just get the scraps and winds. — NBM liquid equivalent through Saturday at midnight shows 0.02” for Pagosa and up to 0.25” in our mountains. Most of this precip falls Friday afternoon to Saturday afternoon. Note the higher precip amounts in the northern mountains – we just get the scraps and winds.

NBM snowfall through Saturday at midnight shows 0.4” for Pagosa, 0.5” for Chama, and 2-3” in our mountains. Most of this precip falls Friday afternoon to Saturday afternoon. — NBM snowfall through Saturday at midnight shows 0.4” for Pagosa, 0.5” for Chama, and 2-3” in our mountains. Snow will have trouble sticking in the valley. Snowflakes are most likely in the valley after midnight Friday to mid-morning Saturday. Any snow that sticks won’t last long.

** Like all forecast products, we compare these to other products, compare them to recent events, compare them to our experience with similar systems during this time of year, consider how the system will interact with our terrain (a biggie!), and then make appropriate adjustments. **

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
61	76 / 1954	26	11 / 1963

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

A couple of exciting things to announce…

We are now the official CoCoRaHS representatives for Archuleta County! We will recruit more CoCoRaHS volunteers, help with training, answer questions, and provide the best data in Colorado!

We also have three presentations coming up: Pagosa Springs Middle School, San Juan Outdoor Club, and the Ruby M. Sisson Memorial Library. Our presentation at the library is open to the public on 26 May at 6pm. Please come and say hi!

My next post will be on Thursday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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