Dry through the weekend – Next system Monday night through Wednesday morning…

First morning sun on the Rio Grande Pyramid… Pic taken 4/7/2022

First morning sun on the Rio Grande Pyramid… Pic taken 4/7/2022

Thursday – 7 Apr 2022 – 12:15pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp yesterday afternoon was 55. The low this morning was 21. The cold spots got down to 11. The peak wind at the airfield in the last 24 hours was 27mph.

Peak winds on Tuesday…

Stevens Field: 38mph

Durango: 47mph

Most locations around Pagosa Springs peaked in the 30-35mph range.

Precip summary… There was no precip in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

The rest of the week will be mostly sunny, and winds will be a bit lighter as ridging remains in control through Friday.

Saturday and Sunday the ridge will flatten and move to our east. Upper level southwest flow will increase and push some moisture into the area and cause gustier winds.

Our next system will impact us Monday night through Wednesday morning with more clouds and scattered showers.  The snow level will start around 8,500ft Monday evening and will gradually drop to 6,000ft by late Tuesday evening. As the snow level drops, moisture and precip will be decreasing which will limit snow amounts in the valley.

Satellite this morning: We still have fairly strong upper level northwest flow between the low over the Great Lakes and the ridge along the West Coast. It’s also dry with little to no clouds in the region.
Satellite this morning: We still have fairly strong upper level northwest flow between the low over the Great Lakes and the ridge along the West Coast. It’s also dry with little to no clouds in the region.

My forecast…

7 Apr 2022 pm Pagosa 5 day forecast 1
Sunday – A spotty shower or two will develop in the afternoon over the mountains.

Monday – Spotty showers will develop in the afternoon and become more widespread in the evening. The snow level will start around 8,500ft and drop to 7,000ft by sunrise on Tuesday. By 8am Tuesday up to 1” of snow is possible below 7,600ft and 1-2” of snow is possible above 7,600ft. The mountains above 9,000ft will get 2-4” of snow by Tuesday morning.

* LE = liquid equivalent. * * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
NBM liquid equivalent through Wednesday at 6pm shows 0.42” for Pagosa and up to an inch in our mountains.
NBM liquid equivalent through Wednesday at 6pm shows 0.42” for Pagosa and up to an inch in our mountains.
NBM snowfall through Wednesday at 6pm shows 1.4” for Pagosa and 8-14” in our mountains.
NBM snowfall through Wednesday at 6pm shows 1.4” for Pagosa and 8-14” in our mountains.

The models continue to be inconsistent with precip amounts so forecast confidence is still shaky.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5674 / 19912310 / 1956

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Unless something unexpected happens, my next post will be on Saturday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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