Winds picking up – Showers Monday night through Wednesday morning…

Fishing was slow yesterday but the weather was great!… Pic taken 4/8/2022

Saturday – 9 Apr 2022 – 10:45am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp yesterday afternoon was 62. The low this morning was 27. The peak wind at the airfield in the last 24 hours was 23mph.

By the way, it’s wind season. Wind prone areas will see gusty afternoon winds more often than naught until the monsoon starts to set up in mid-June.

Precip summary… There was no precip in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

Today and tomorrow the ridge will flatten and move to our east. Upper level southwest flow will increase and push more clouds into the area and cause gustier winds. A stray afternoon shower or two is possible over the mountains.

Our next system will impact us Monday night through Wednesday morning with more clouds, scattered showers, and gusty winds. The snow level will start around 10,000ft Monday evening, and then drop to 7,600ft by Tuesday morning, and finally down to 6,000ft Tuesday evening. As the snow level drops, moisture and precip will be decreasing which will limit snow amounts in the valley.

*** Driving conditions will be bad in the mountains on Tuesday. ***

Wednesday the trough will move through in the early morning and clouds will gradually clear. Scattered snowshowers will linger over the mountains. It will be chilly with high temps 15-20 degrees below average and add 20-30mph winds and we’ll forget what month it is!

*Satellite this morning: That’s all mid and upper level clouds with the trough moving through UT – there is no precip but the trough could kick up a shower or two over our mountains this afternoon.*

My forecast…

Today and tomorrow – A spotty shower or two is possible in the afternoon over the mountains. Monday – Spotty showers will develop in the afternoon and become more widespread overnight. The snow level will start around 10,000ft and drop to 7,600ft by sunrise on Tuesday. By 8am Tuesday up to 1” of snow is possible above 7,600ft. The mountains above 9,000ft will get 1-3” by Tuesday morning. Winds in the mountains will peak around 50mph. Tuesday – The snow level will stay mainly around 7,500ft through the day, but can drop briefly to 7,000ft with showers. The snow level will drop to 6,000ft by evening. Winds in the mountains will peak around 50mph. Driving conditions will be bad in the mountains. * LE = liquid equivalent. * * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * — ***Today and tomorrow – A spotty shower or two is possible in the afternoon over the mountains.***

Monday – Spotty showers will develop in the afternoon and become more widespread overnight. The snow level will start around 10,000ft and drop to 7,600ft by sunrise on Tuesday. By 8am Tuesday up to 1” of snow is possible above 7,600ft. The mountains above 9,000ft will get 1-3” by Tuesday morning. Winds in the mountains will peak around 50mph.

Tuesday – The snow level will stay mainly around 7,500ft through the day, but can drop briefly to 7,000ft with showers. The snow level will drop to 6,000ft by evening. Winds in the mountains will peak around 50mph. Driving conditions will be bad in the mountains.

*** LE = liquid equivalent. * * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. ***

*NBM liquid equivalent through Wednesday at 6am shows 0.30” to 0.40” in the valley and up to 0.90” in our mountains.*

*NBM snowfall through Wednesday at 6pm shows up to 2” above 8,000ft, around an inch below, and 8-12” in our mountains.*

The University of Utah GFS and Canadian model ensemble snowfall for Wolf Creek – The overall spread is roughly 5-40”. That’s a big variance that doesn’t instill confidence in amounts. There’s also a big spread between the GFS average of 10” and the Canadian average of 26”. Other models are closer to the GFS.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
57	75 / 1989	23	6 / 1973

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Mark will take over tomorrow. Have fun Mark!

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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