WINDY today – Dry the rest of the week…

Yesterday started dreary and finished nice.  This is the San Juan River in New Mexico… Pic taken 4/4/2022

Yesterday started dreary and finished nice.  This is the San Juan River in New Mexico… Pic taken 4/4/2022

Tuesday – 5 Apr 2022 – 10:00am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp yesterday afternoon was 50. The low this morning was 30. The peak wind at the airfield in the last 24 hours was 8mph.

Precip summary… Wolf Creek reported 5” from yesterday’s system. 

CoCoRaHS precip reports range from 0.11” to 0.30”.  A few folks reported 1-2” of wet snow.
CoCoRaHS precip reports range from 0.11” to 0.30”.  A few folks reported 1-2” of wet snow.

Forecast discussion…

Today a strong jet stream out of the northwest will result in partly cloudy skies and gusty winds. The rest of the week will be mostly sunny, and winds will gradually decrease as ridging takes over.

Our next system will impact us Monday through Wednesday. In fact, we could see a couple of powder days up at Wolf Creek!

Satellite this morning: There are lots of wave clouds across the western US associated with a strong jet stream flowing northwest to southeast in our area.  That big ridge off the coast will keep us dry the rest of the week.
Satellite this morning: There are lots of wave clouds across the western US associated with a strong jet stream flowing northwest to southeast into our area.  That big ridge off the coast will keep us dry the rest of the week.

My forecast…

Today – It will be windy, especially in the mountains. I expect the wind prone areas in the valley to peak around 40mph. Along our mountain ridges winds will peak around 55mph. * LE = liquid equivalent. * * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
Today – It will be windy, especially in the mountains. I expect the wind prone areas in the valley to peak around 40mph. Along our mountain ridges winds will peak around 55mph.

* LE = liquid equivalent. * * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
HRRR wind gusts today at 4pm shows 43mph for Pagosa, 38mph for Chama, and 34mph for Durango.  Our nearby ridge lines peak around 55mph. Some of the higher mountain tops could hit 75mph.
HRRR wind gusts today at 4pm shows 43mph for Pagosa, 38mph for Chama, and 34mph for Durango.  Our nearby ridge lines peak around 55mph. Some of the higher mountain tops could hit 75mph.
NBM liquid equivalent through Wednesday at 6pm shows 0.52” for Pagosa and up to an inch in our mountains.
NBM liquid equivalent through next Wednesday at 6pm shows 0.52” for Pagosa and up to an inch in our mountains.
NBM snowfall through Wednesday at 6pm shows 4.3” for Pagosa and 12-18” in our mountains.
NBM snowfall through next Wednesday at 6pm shows 4.3” for Pagosa and 12-18” in our mountains.

The next system is still 7 days out and the models are all over the place with the details. The NBM is a rough average of the models and looks reasonable at this point. As always, we’ll narrow down precip and timing as the system nears.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5573 / 1959226 / 1955

Yesterday, 4 Apr, is the last day of the season for a record low below zero.

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Unless something unexpected happens, I’m skipping tomorrow so my next post will be on Thursday.  The Thursday post will include today’s peak winds.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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