Snowshowers Sunday night and Monday – How about the rest of March?…

Evening clouds over Pagosa Peak… Pic taken 3/17/2022

Evening clouds over Pagosa Peak… Pic taken 3/17/2022

Friday – 18 Mar 2022 – 10:20am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp yesterday afternoon was 44. The low this morning was 14. The cold spots dipped into the single digits. The peak wind at the airfield yesterday afternoon was 22mph.

Precip summary… We got a couple of surprise snow reports: 3+ inches from Debbie in Trujillo and 7” from Clayton in Lumberton! Wolf Creek reported 2” in the last 24 hours.

Thanks so much for your reports!

CoCoRaHS 2-day snowfall reports range from a trace to 1.1”.  Based on the reports I mentioned above, a narrow heavier band of snow set up to the south.
CoCoRaHS 2-day snowfall reports range from a trace to 1.1”.  Based on the reports I mentioned above, a narrow heavier band of snow set up to the south.

Forecast discussion…

Friday and Saturday scattered high cirrus clouds will continue to move through and we’ll be dry as ridging builds back over the region.

Sunday and Monday the next system will move through. It looks pretty similar to the system that just moved through.

Tuesday, ridging will gradually build back into the region and northerly flow will slowly dry us out.

Unfortunately I don’t see any weather to get excited about for the rest of the month – it looks pretty dry.  Let’s hope the pattern changes in our favor!

Satellite this morning: There are quite few high cirrus clouds moving through from the northwest.  The weak trough to our west will move through in the early evening and might kick up a mountain snowshower or two. The ridge currently along the west coast will move over our heads tomorrow evening.  Upper level southwest flow and clouds will increase on Sunday ahead of the next system.
Satellite this morning: There are quite few high cirrus clouds moving through from the northwest.  The weak trough to our west will move through in the early evening and might kick up a mountain snowshower or two. The ridge currently along the west coast will move over our heads tomorrow evening.  Upper level southwest flow and clouds will increase on Sunday ahead of the next system.

My forecast…

Today – A snowshower or two is possible over the mountains late this afternoon and evening. I don’t expect any accumulation. Sunday – Scattered showers will start in the afternoon and increase overnight.  The snow level will start at 8,000ft and gradually drop to 6,500ft overnight. Monday – Scattered snowshowers will taper off by late afternoon in the valley and in the evening over the mountains.
Today – A snowshower or two is possible over the mountains late this afternoon and evening. I don’t expect any accumulation.
Sunday – Scattered showers will start in the afternoon and increase overnight.  The snow level will start at 8,000ft and gradually drop to 6,500ft overnight.
Monday – Scattered snowshowers will taper off by late afternoon in the valley and in the evening over the mountains.
NBM snowfall to Tuesday at midnight shows 0.4” for us, 0.9” for Chama, and 3-6” in our mountains. Note the two bullseyes in eastern CO in the 8-12” range. Travel will be rough in those areas Monday and Tuesday morning.
NBM snowfall to Tuesday at midnight shows 0.4” for us, 0.9” for Chama, and 3-6” in our mountains. Note the two bullseyes in eastern CO in the 8-12” range. Travel will be rough in those areas Monday and Tuesday morning.
The University of Utah GFS and Canadian model ensemble snowfall for Wolf Creek – The GFS average is 6-7” and the Canadian model average is 8-9”. Based on everything else I’ve looked at, I think the Canadian model is overdoing it and the GFS is at the top of the range.  My expectations are a little lower.
The University of Utah GFS and Canadian model ensemble snowfall for Wolf Creek – The GFS average is 6-7” and the Canadian model average is 8-9”. Based on everything else I’ve looked at, I think the Canadian model is overdoing it and the GFS is at the top of the range.  My expectations are a little lower.
The Climate Prediction center 6-10 day and 8-14 day precip outlooks both expect below average precip for us.  Unfortunately I agree.
The Climate Prediction center 6-10 day and 8-14 day precip outlooks both expect below average precip for us.  Unfortunately I agree.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5069 / 190716-10 / 1917

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Unless there’s a big change or something pops up, I’m skipping tomorrow and Mark will get the next post out sometime on Sunday.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Picture of Shawn Pro

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
Get Pagosa Weather Updates

Enter your email address to receive notifications of new posts by email.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use                  Privacy Policy

 

© 2024 Pagosa Weathe

Website Design by : Brandon