Snowshowers Sunday night and Monday – How about the rest of March?…

Evening clouds over Pagosa Peak… Pic taken 3/17/2022

Friday – 18 Mar 2022 – 10:20am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp yesterday afternoon was 44. The low this morning was 14. The cold spots dipped into the single digits. The peak wind at the airfield yesterday afternoon was 22mph.

Precip summary… We got a couple of surprise snow reports: 3+ inches from Debbie in Trujillo and 7” from Clayton in Lumberton! Wolf Creek reported 2” in the last 24 hours.

Thanks so much for your reports!

*CoCoRaHS 2-day snowfall reports range from a trace to 1.1”. Based on the reports I mentioned above, a narrow heavier band of snow set up to the south.*

Forecast discussion…

Friday and Saturday scattered high cirrus clouds will continue to move through and we’ll be dry as ridging builds back over the region.

Sunday and Monday the next system will move through. It looks pretty similar to the system that just moved through.

Tuesday, ridging will gradually build back into the region and northerly flow will slowly dry us out.

Unfortunately I don’t see any weather to get excited about for the rest of the month – it looks pretty dry. Let’s hope the pattern changes in our favor!

Satellite this morning: There are quite few high cirrus clouds moving through from the northwest. The weak trough to our west will move through in the early evening and might kick up a mountain snowshower or two. The ridge currently along the west coast will move over our heads tomorrow evening. Upper level southwest flow and clouds will increase on Sunday ahead of the next system.

My forecast…

Today – A snowshower or two is possible over the mountains late this afternoon and evening. I don’t expect any accumulation. Sunday – Scattered showers will start in the afternoon and increase overnight. The snow level will start at 8,000ft and gradually drop to 6,500ft overnight. Monday – Scattered snowshowers will taper off by late afternoon in the valley and in the evening over the mountains. — ***Today – A snowshower or two is possible over the mountains late this afternoon and evening. I don’t expect any accumulation.***
***Sunday – Scattered showers will start in the afternoon and increase overnight. The snow level will start at 8,000ft and gradually drop to 6,500ft overnight.***
***Monday – Scattered snowshowers will taper off by late afternoon in the valley and in the evening over the mountains.***

NBM snowfall to Tuesday at midnight shows 0.4” for us, 0.9” for Chama, and 3-6” in our mountains. Note the two bullseyes in eastern CO in the 8-12” range. Travel will be rough in those areas Monday and Tuesday morning.

The University of Utah GFS and Canadian model ensemble snowfall for Wolf Creek – The GFS average is 6-7” and the Canadian model average is 8-9”. Based on everything else I’ve looked at, I think the Canadian model is overdoing it and the GFS is at the top of the range. My expectations are a little lower.

*The Climate Prediction center 6-10 day and 8-14 day precip outlooks both expect below average precip for us. Unfortunately I agree.*

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
50	69 / 1907	16	-10 / 1917

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Unless there’s a big change or something pops up, I’m skipping tomorrow and Mark will get the next post out sometime on Sunday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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