Mostly mountain snowshowers today…

Cimarrona emerging from the clouds… Pic taken 3/17/2022

Thursday – 17 Mar 2022 – 10:15am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp yesterday afternoon was 53. The low this morning was 30. The peak wind at the airfield yesterday afternoon was 23mph.

Precip summary… Just a dusting of snow fell in parts of the valley and up at Wolf Creek.

*It has been snowing lightly on Wolf Creek Pass this morning. Note: The time will be off one hour until we switch to standard time in the fall.*

Forecast discussion…

The low is spinning over southeast CO and moving slowly towards the east. This puts us on the backside of the low with northwest flow – known as wrap-around. Northwest flow will keep most of the precip on the other side of The Divide. We could see a shower or two spill over the mountains, but they won’t amount to anything.

Friday and Saturday clouds will try to clear and we’ll be dry as ridging builds back over the region.

Sunday and Monday the next system will move through. It looks pretty similar to the system moving through now.

Satellite this morning: The low is just east of Trinidad and moving very slowly towards the east. We’re on the west edge of wrap-around moisture. As the low moves farther east, it will drag the wrap-around moisture with it.

Radar this morning: Radar lines up nicely with satellite. We’re on the western edge of a band of light precip. It’s snowing pretty good in parts of the SLV. Visibility and roads look bad on LeVeta Pass and from Raton to just south of Pueblo.

My forecast…

Today – Scattered snowshowers are possible into the afternoon but won’t amount to anything. Sunday – Scattered showers will start in the afternoon and increase overnight. The snow level will start at 8,000ft and gradually drop to 6,500ft overnight. Monday – Scattered snowshowers will taper off by late afternoon in the valley and in the evening over the mountains. — ***Today – Scattered snowshowers are possible into the afternoon but won’t amount to anything.***
***Sunday – Scattered showers will start in the afternoon and increase overnight. The snow level will start at 8,000ft and gradually drop to 6,500ft overnight.***
***Monday – Scattered snowshowers will taper off by late afternoon in the valley and in the evening over the mountains.***

*NWS snowfall to 6am on Friday shows Pagosa getting less than an inch of snow and Wolf Creek Pass in the 1-3” range.*

*The NWS forecast model focused on our area shows a dusting in the valley and 1-3” in our mountains.*

The WPC blended 24-hour precip model loop from 6pm Sunday to 6am Tuesday shows us getting 0.16” liquid equivalent. Note that much of southeast CO is expected to get over an inch and the Colorado Springs and Denver areas get over a half inch. — The WPC blended 24-hour precip model loop from 6pm Sunday to 6am Tuesday shows us getting 0.16” liquid equivalent which would put us in the 1-2″ range for snow. Note that much of southeast CO is expected to get over an inch and the Colorado Springs and Denver areas get over a half inch.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
50	67 / 1972	16	-12 / 1917

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Next post will be tomorrow morning.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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