A lone standing lenticular cloud at sunset last night… Pic taken 3/15/2022
Wednesday – 15 Mar 2022 – 10:15am
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temp yesterday afternoon was 53. Arboles hit 61 (thanks Martha and John!) and I saw temps near 60 in downtown Pagosa. The low this morning was 23. The peak wind at the airfield this afternoon was 8mph.
Precip summary… None in the last 24 hours
Forecast discussion…
Late this afternoon to tomorrow afternoon the next system will move through Colorado. Upper level flow will be west to northwest which doesn’t favor us. Unfortunately the best moisture and storm energy will stay on other side of The Divide. The Palmer Divide and parts of the Front Range will get 8-12” of snow from this system.
Friday and Saturday clouds will try to clear and we’ll be dry as ridging builds back over the region.
Sunday and Monday the next system will move through, and it looks more promising.


My forecast…

Tonight after midnight – The snow level will drop to 6,500ft.
Tomorrow – Scattered snowshowers are possible into the afternoon but temps will be above freezing, so snow will have trouble sticking.
Sunday – Scattered showers will start in the afternoon and increase overnight. The snow level will start at 8,500ft and gradually drop to 6,500ft overnight.


They’re both coming into line for system 2 but there is a considerable variance from 5-30”. The GFS average is around 12” and the Canadian model average is around 8”. System 2 precip falls mostly Sunday night and during the day on Monday.


This is a pretty big difference between the models. My gut tells me this will be similar to the first system but with a little more moisture. I’ll tackle precip amounts in tomorrow’s post.
Pagosa Springs historical data
Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
50 | 65 / 1957 | 15 | -13 / 1913 |
Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.
Next post will be tomorrow morning.
– Shawn
2 Responses
About 1 1/2 inches so far in Alpha & in a snow globe…lol
So far I’ve gotten my 3-4″s already @ Oak Hill 8K