Lots of sun and seasonal temps plus a storm summary and snowpack update…

Wolf Creek will be fantastic today!… Web cam capture 3/10/2022 at 6:43am

Wolf Creek will be fantastic today!… Web cam capture 3/10/2022 at 6:43am

Friday – 11 Mar 2022 – 9:50am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp yesterday afternoon was 33. The low this morning was 6.  Most of us had lows in the 0-10 degree range.  The cold spots got down to -4.  Our friends in Creede were in the minus low teens this morning.  In South Fork one weather sensor said -10 while two others were near zero. The peak wind at the airfield in the last 24 hours was 22mph.

Precip summary… This storm favored the southern half of the county where we got lots of reports in the 6-8” range. Wolf Creek reported another 12” of new snow in the last 24 hours 21” in the last 2 days.

CoCoRaHS 2-day snowfall reports range from 1.7” to 5” but we got a lot of reports in the 6-8” range across the southern and western parts of the county.
CoCoRaHS 2-day snowfall reports range from 1.7” to 5” but we got a lot of reports in the 6-8” range across the southern and western parts of the county.

Snowpack update…

Western US snowpack on 11 Mar 2022 – Overall Colorado is very close to average.  Much of the western US is below average.  Parts of northern NM and AZ got a decent bump from the recent storm.
Western US snowpack on 11 Mar 2022 – Overall Colorado is very close to average.  Much of the western US is below average.  Parts of northern NM and AZ got a decent bump from the recent storm.

The Wolf Creek summit snotel is at 131% for this date and at 94% of its seasonal average.  The Upper San Juan snotel is at 102% for this date and at 88% of its seasonal average.  This is pretty good for a LaNina winter! 

However, we have to thank the big Christmas to New Years storm cycle. Between 22 Dec and 1 Jan the Wolf Creek Summit snotel got 12.5″ of SWE and the Upper San Juan snotel got 11” of SWE. Take away that big holiday storm cycle and they would be at 20.7″ and 15.2” – just 58% and 51% for this date. That big storm cycle is likely a season-saver for parts of Colorado!

Forecast discussion…

The upper level trough moved trough last night and clouds cleared out quickly behind it.  We woke up to a clear, cold, and picturesque morning.

Friday through at least Tuesday, a ridge will build back over the region and keep us dry. The exception is Sunday night when a few more clouds and a mountain snowshower or two is possible as a trough moves through northern Colorado. It will hardly impact us.

I’m keeping my eye on a system expected to move through Wednesday/Thursday.  Right now it doesn’t look impressive but there’s time for it to get its act together.

GeoColor satellite this morning: It’s mostly clouds south and east of the green line.  Everything else is snow.  It’s interesting to zoom in and see where the heaviest snow fell. It looks like the southwest part of the SLV did good.  There is a CoCoRaHS report in that area that confirms it with 7.1”.
GeoColor satellite this morning: It’s mostly clouds south and east of the green line.  Everything else is snow.  It’s interesting to zoom in and see where the heaviest snow fell. It looks like the southwest part of the SLV did good.  There is a CoCoRaHS report in that area that confirms it with 7.1”.

My forecast…

Sunday evening into Monday morning a few spotty mountain snowshowers are possible
Sunday evening into Monday morning a few spotty mountain snowshowers are possible
NBM precip through Tuesday at midnight keeps us dry while a few inches of snow is possible in the mountains to our north.
NBM precip through Tuesday at midnight keeps us dry while a few inches of snow is possible in the mountains to our north.
University of Utah GFS and Canadian model ensemble snowfall for Wolf Creek shows 3 or 4 snowflakes possible Sunday night and then 2-4” possible around Thursday.
University of Utah GFS and Canadian model ensemble snowfall for Wolf Creek shows 3 or 4 snowflakes possible Sunday night and then 2-4” possible around Thursday.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4872 / 198914-8 / 1942

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next post will be Sunday afternoon.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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