Snow has come in spurts this winter but is currently close to average
Wednesday – 2 Mar 2022 – 7:15am
February 2022 Summary…
The average low for February is 9 and the average high is 42. The record high of 60 occurred on 27 Feb 1988. The record low of -39 occurred on 1 Feb 1916. February precip averages 2.02″ with 23.1″ of snow. Wolf Creek averages 68.7″ of snow in February and 304.7″ to this point in the season.
How did we do? Check out these charts…





Snowpack update…



Drought and River flow update…


March 2022 outlook…
The average low for March is 15 and the average high is 49. The record high of 73 occurred on 19 Mar 1907. The record low of -25 occurred on 1 Mar 1913. March precip averages 1.77″ with 19.5″ of snow. Wolf Creek averages 75.8″ of snow in March and 380.5″ to this point in the season.
And here’s the outlook…



The pattern is active the first half of the month and then storm track shifts to our north. Towards the end of the month the pattern is neutral. I’ll take a neutral pattern that gives me some hope over an inactive pattern with no hope any day!
And what do we expect?
Well Arleen is the expert and this is what she says…
“The first few days of March will be quiet due to the influence of La Nina. However, the equatorial waters are continuing to warm though still colder than average. That points to the weakening of the La Nina – good news for us. It means the equatorial region could be more active which would help the polar front jet move further south. When this happens, more active patterns can move over us. As we begin to move into a neutral ENSO state, we can expect a more active second and fourth week of March. Unfortunately, the MJO remains weak and the most active stage is hiding out in the Indian Ocean. Still hoping to see it strengthen and move into stage 7 by the last week of March. There are also areas of arctic air associated with the polar oscillation. As that cold air moves southeast in the second week in March, it should help destabilize our atmosphere and help with snow production. So I expect an active second and fourth week of March resulting in average precipitation and snow for March.“
A HUGE thanks for your precip reports and pictures! Reports help verify our forecasts and make us better forecasters.
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PagosaWeather.org The Trusted Local Experts
- Shawn