Here we go…

3-3-22. 2:15pm update…

The low this morning at Stevens Field was 22 degrees and the high so far today has been 58. There was no precipitation recorded in our area.

3pm Winter Storm Warning and Advisory Update:

Screenshot 2022 03 03 151007
Current advisory and warnings. Pagosa Springs is not included as of this post.

For Wolf Creek Pass:

…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY… * WHAT…Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 19 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE…Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet. * WHEN…From 8 AM Friday to 5 PM MST Sunday. * IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS…A temporary lull in snowfall intensity is expected Saturday afternoon. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

For elevations above 9000 feet…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY ABOVE 9000 FEET… * WHAT…Snow expected above 9000 feet. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches. Expect locally higher amounts. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE…Southwest San Juan Mountains. * WHEN…From 8 AM Friday to 5 PM MST Sunday. Expect lulls in snowfall, especially during the day Saturday. * IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.

High clouds are already starting to stream in from the SW…an indication that our mid-level winds are bringing in more moisture as high pressure is moving to our east. A trough is digging into the west coast along with two lows that will be giving us a good chance for rain, snow and even a thunderstorm from Friday through at least Tuesday of next week. We should start seeing a rain/snow mix as early as Friday morning, but with high temps hitting the mid 40’s there will not be any road accumulation during the day. Such will not be the case at Wolf Creek Pass, with temps below freezing, snow will start accumulating by noon. (3pm update) A Winter Storm Warning has now been issued for Wolf Creek Pass. Snow levels will rise to above 8000 feet during the day giving us a chance for snow, rain and a possible thunderstorm in the afternoon…a lot will depend on your elevation. If you live closer to downtown, you will most likely only see rain on Friday. By Friday night colder air will arrive and the snow levels should drop back to below 7000 feet through most of next week. Saturday and Sunday will be our best chances for seeing snow, but snow odds will continue through at least Tuesday even with skies becoming partly cloudy. Temps will go from above normal to below normal starting on Saturday.

Screenshot 2022 03 03 125619
A trough is digging into the west coast along with two lows that will be giving us a good chance for rain, snow and even a thunderstorm from Friday through at least Tuesday of next week.
StormTotalSnow GJT
Here is the latest NWS snowfall forecast from today through Sunday morning.
Screenshot 2022 03 03 132400
The latest NBM model run is forecasting 8.6 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs from Friday-Tuesday.
Screenshot 2022 03 03 132441
The latest Euro model is now forecasting 7.6 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs through Tuesday.

My forecast…

For those of you who like to “hear” our forecast, call 877-841-0247.

Pagosa 5day 3 3

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data for March 3rd.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4560/ 198613-15/ 1913

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