Troughs aloft and other fun weather…

Pagosa Peak

Seems like every time I take my drone up for a test flight, all of the cross-country skiers vanish!

3-1-22. 3pm update…

The low this morning at Stevens Field was 16 degrees and the high so far today has been 54. There was no precipitation recorded in our area but with all of the snow melt going on it sounds like it’s raining outside!

Meteorological spring began today and it will continue to feel springish through Thursday as high temperatures exceed 50 degrees (I have my shorts on as I type this post!) By Friday, a large trough will dig into the Pacific NW and set up several days of potential rain and snow for our area as a series of waves and upper-level lows move east. Essentially, we will lose ridging over us and switch into a period of troughiness, which means unsettled weather for at least a week. As all of this sets up on Friday, we could see snow levels rise to above 8000 feet during the day giving us a chance for rain and a possible thunderstorm in the afternoon. By Friday night colder air will arrive and the snow levels should drop back to below 7000 feet.

floop ecmwf full 2022030112.500h anom.conus
This graphic illustrates how several upper-level lows and troughs will keep our weather unsettled from Friday through most of next week. The blue indicates an area with a lack of ridging, thus giving us a chance for precipitation.
Screenshot 2022 03 01 142214
Along with our precipitation odds ramping up, we will likely be seeing below normal temperatures from Friday through next week. Winter is back!
Screenshot 2022 03 01 135357
The latest EURO model run is forecasting 6 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs from Friday-Sunday.
Screenshot 2022 03 01 142555
The latest long-range EURO model continues to forecast snowfall through all of next week.
Screenshot 2022 03 01 135357 1
The latest National Blend of Models is now forecasting 6 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs through the weekend…the models are starting to agree with each other!

My forecast…

For those of you who like to “hear” our forecast, call 877-841-0247.

Pagosa 5day 3 1

I’ll be on a photoshoot tomorrow in Farmington so my next post will be on Thursday unless something completely meteorologically random occurs. Shawn will be posting February summaries tomorrow.

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data for March 1st.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4663/ 194312-25/ 1913

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