Nice jump in our snowpack and nice weather this week!…

It’s hard to beat knee to waist high powder up at Wolf Creek!… Pic taken 2/24/2022

It’s hard to beat knee to waist high powder up at Wolf Creek!… Pic taken 2/24/2022

Thursday – 24 Feb 2022 – 5:20pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp this afternoon was 29. The low this morning was 16.  The peak wind at the airfield in the last 24 hours was 22mph.

Precip in the last 24 hours…  I was glad to hear that quite a few people reported decent snow this morning.  Below are CoCoRaHS reports for the last 24 hours and for the storm.  Also below are some “before and after” snowpack products.  The mountains did well but the valley fell quite short of my expectations.

Wolf Creek reported 16″ in the last 24 hours and 46″ for the storm.

Thanks a bunch for your reports!

CoCoRaHS 24hr snowfall reports in Archuleta County range from 3.7” to 8”.
CoCoRaHS 24hr snowfall reports in Archuleta County range from 3.7” to 8”.
CoCoRaHS 3-day snowfall reports in Archuleta County range from 7.6” to 13.5”
CoCoRaHS 3-day snowfall reports in Archuleta County range from 7.6” to 13.5”
Western US snowpack “before and after” – 21 Feb is on the left and 24 Feb is on the right. Our nearby basins went from 86% to 103”.  A 17% jump this late in the season is impressive!
Western US snowpack “before and after” – 21 Feb is on the left and 24 Feb is on the right. Our nearby basins went from 86% to 103”.  A 17% jump this late in the season is impressive!
“Before and after” snowpack data for our nearby basins - 21 Feb is on the left and 24 Feb is on the right. The Upper San Juan snotel went from 90% to 98%.  The Wolf Creek summit snotel went from 86% to 103%. As of this afternoon just over 4” of snow water equivalent was added to the Wolf Creek summit snowpack in 3 days!
“Before and after” snowpack data for our nearby basins – 21 Feb is on the left and 24 Feb is on the right. The Upper San Juan snotel went from 90% to 98%.  The Wolf Creek summit snotel went from 111% to 128%. As of this afternoon just over 4” of snow water equivalent was added to the Wolf Creek summit snowpack in 3 days!

Forecast discussion…

The trough finally moved through earlier today.

Upper level northwest flow will dry us out and gradually warm us up for the next 7 days.

The next system?… The pattern could get more active around 4 or 5 March.

Water vapor satellite this afternoon: The trough has moved to our east and upper level west to northwest flow is pushing drier air into the region. The little trough moving through ID might bring an inch or two of snow to the northern Colorado mountains, but it won’t impact us.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon: The trough has moved to our east and upper level west to northwest flow is pushing drier air into the region. The little trough moving through ID might bring an inch or two of snow to the northern Colorado mountains, but it won’t impact us.

My forecast…

*** Update: A special Avalanche Advisory Is valid from now to 27 Feb at 11pm. Traveling on or under slopes steeper than about 30 degrees is not recommended. Large and dangerous avalanches are possible. ***

Tonight through Wednesday… Clouds will gradually clear tonight leading to a cold Friday morning.  For the rest of this period skies will vary from clear to partly cloudy. Patchy morning fog is possible in the low-lying areas tonight and tomorrow night.

Temps… Lows tonight will be -10 to 10.  Friday and Saturday highs will be in the lower to upper 30s and lows will be -5 to 15.  Sunday and Monday highs will be in the mid to upper 40s and lows will be 5-20.  Tuesday and Wednesday highs will be in the upper 40s to mid-50s and lows will be 10-25.

Next system?… The pattern could get more active starting around 4 March – stay tuned!

Euro 500mb anomaly from 28 Feb to 11 Mar. Warm colors, yellow and orange, indicate a dry, boring pattern while cool colors, blue, indicate a more active fun pattern.  It starts transitioning to a more active pattern around 4 Mar and stays active to 11 Mar.  Let’s hope it verifies!
Euro 500mb anomaly from 28 Feb to 11 Mar. Warm colors, yellow and orange, indicate a dry, boring pattern while cool colors, blue, indicate a more active fun pattern.  It starts transitioning to a more active pattern around 4 Mar and stays active to 11 Mar.  Let’s hope it verifies!

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4460 / 198110-25 / 1909

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Unless something pops up, my next post will be on Saturday.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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