A dud so far for many but it isn’t over!…

Happy pups running in the snow… Pic taken 2/22/2022

Happy pups running in the snow… Pic taken 2/22/2022

Wednesday – 23 Feb 2022 – 10:00am

The past…

At Stevens Field in the last 24 hours the high temp was 33 and it occurred around midnight. The low this morning was 26.  The peak wind at the airfield in the last 24 hours was 27mph. Winds most of the night were gusting into the 20-25mph range.  We hit 37mph in O’Neal Park in the middle of the night. Winds up at Wolf Creek are a mystery. The sensor hasn’t reported winds for the last 36 hours or so.

Precip in the last 24 hours…  I’m struggling with this one!  Many folks hardly got anything.  Up here in O’Neal Park we got 6.6″ in the last 24 hours and 10″ total so far. I had to shovel the driveway twice yesterday due to drifting. Debbie reported “Tough to measure due to drifting but I’d say 6-9″ Hatcher/Highlands. Driving back from town yesterday snow wasn’t significantly measurable until after the split in the road on North Pagosa. Felt like a different world out here.”

Wolf Creek reported 16″ in the last 24 hours and 25″ for the storm.

Thanks a bunch for your reports!

CoCoRaHS 24hr snowfall reports in Archuleta County range from 0.4” to 6.6”.
CoCoRaHS 24hr snowfall reports in Archuleta County range from 0.4” to 6.6”.

Forecast discussion…

I expected the trough to move closer last night, and it hardly moved. Most of the precip stayed to our west. That will change through the day as the trough continues to slowly move east. The upper level trough will finally move through tomorrow morning.

Thursday night through Saturday… Upper level northwest flow will dry us out.

Water vapor satellite this morning: The trough has hardly moved in the last 24 hours keeping us on the eastern edge of the moisture.  Those bands of clouds in front of the trough are causing precip and will move over us this afternoon and into the evening.
Water vapor satellite this morning: The trough has hardly moved in the last 24 hours keeping us on the eastern edge of the moisture.  Those bands of clouds in front of the trough are causing precip and will move over us this afternoon and into the evening.
Radar this morning: We’re on the eastern edge of the snowshowers and they’re mostly over the mountains.  Precip is increasing across central AZ as the trough moves east.  Those bands of showers will move over us this afternoon and into the evening.
Radar this morning: We’re on the eastern edge of the snowshowers and they’re mostly over the mountains.  Precip is increasing across central AZ as the trough moves east.  Those bands of showers will move over us this afternoon and into the evening.

My forecast…

This afternoon into tomorrow afternoon… Expect periods of heavy snow, blowing snow, poor visibility, and bad driving conditions through tonight. The bulk of the snow will be done by early tomorrow morning. Scattered showers will end in the valley by mid-morning and persist into the early afternoon over the mountains.

Winds… Winds will pick up again this afternoon and gust 25-35mph causing periods of significant drifting snow. Winds up at Wolf Creek will consistently gust into the 45-55mph range. Winds will gradually decrease during the evening.

Temps… Highs today and tomorrow will be in the upper 20s to mid-30s and lows tonight will be in the low-teens to low-20s.

My snowfall forecast…

Valley below 7,600ft: 5-10”

Valley above 7,600ft: 8-14”

Mountains: 20-28”

*** The Pueblo NWS has issued a Winter Weather Warning for the Eastern San Juan Mountains above 10,000ft valid from until 11am Thursday.  It’s for an additional 8-24” of snow and winds up to 55mph. ***

*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a Winter Weather Warning for the Southwest San Juan Mountains valid until 11am Thursday for an additional 8-16” of snow with locally higher amounts over favored terrain, and winds to 50mph. ***

 *** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a Winter Weather Warning for the upper San Juan Basin which includes Pagosa Springs.  It’s valid until 5am Thursday for 5-12” of additional snow with higher amounts in the San Juan foothills (which is us). ***

*** The Colorado Avalanche Information Center has issued an Avalanche Warning valid until tomorrow at 6pm.  Very dangerous avalanche conditions exist in the backcounty. Make sure to check their web page or app for the latest conditions. ***

*** Expect temporary closures on Wolf Creek Pass. Follow COtrip for the latest travel conditions. ***

The Grand Junction NWS snowfall map says 7-10” for Pagosa Springs and up to 30” in our mountains.
The Grand Junction NWS snowfall map says 7-10” for Pagosa Springs and up to 30” in our mountains.
The NWS snowfall forecast model focused on our area shows 9” in town and 25” for Wolf Creek.
The NWS snowfall forecast model focused on our area shows 9” in town and 25” for Wolf Creek.

Thursday night through Saturday… Clouds will gradually clear Thursday night leading to a cold Friday morning.  For the rest of this period skies will be partly cloudy.

Temps… Lows Thursday night will be -10 to 10.  Highs will be in the lower to upper 30s and lows will be 0 to 15.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4462 / 19479-25 / 1911

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

I’ll do a quick Facebook post tomorrow morning and then a more thorough post in the afternoon that will include a storm summary.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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