Nice weather through Thursday afternoon and then a pattern change…

The San Juan Sled Dogs love the new snow!… Pic taken 2/25/2022

The San Juan Sled Dogs love the new snow!… Pic taken 2/25/2022

Saturday – 26 Feb 2022 – 9:00am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp yesterday afternoon was 34. The low this morning was 1.  Most of us saw lows between -5 and 10.  The coldest spot was the upper Piedra with a low of -19.5! The peak wind at the airfield in the last 24 hours was 17mph.

Weather Underground temps at 7am this morning
Weather Underground temps at 7am this morning

Precip in the last 24 hours…  None

Forecast discussion…

Upper level ridging will keep us dry and gradually warm us up through Thursday.

Thursday night and Friday a weak system will move through. It might start on the warm side with the dreaded “r” word in the valley.  This system is still 5-6 days out, so details are sketchy.

The models agree that the pattern will stay active beyond Friday, but they’re all over the place with the details.

GeoColor satellite this morning: That is all snow across the Four Corners region!
GeoColor satellite this morning: That is all snow across the Four Corners region!

My forecast…

*** There is a SPECIAL AVALANCHE ADVISORY out through the weekend. Avalanche conditions are dangerous! ***

Today through Thursday afternoon… Skies will vary from clear to partly cloudy.

Temps… Today highs will be in the lower to upper 30s and lows will be -5 to 15.  Sunday and Monday highs will be in the mid to upper 40s and lows will be 5-20.  Tuesday through Thursday highs will be in the upper 40s to mid-50s and lows will be 10-25.

Thursday night and Friday… We’ll see more clouds and a chance for precip. It’s too early to get into details.  Mark will figure that out!

The NBM to Friday at 11pm shows 0.4” in Pagosa and 2-4” in our mountains. The models are inconsistent with timing, amounts, and snow levels.
The NBM to Friday at 11pm shows 0.4” in Pagosa and 2-4” in our mountains. The models are inconsistent with timing, amounts, and snow levels.

Beyond Friday… The pattern could stay active for a while.

The Euro ensemble precip for Pagosa shows an active pattern starting 4 Mar.  The other primary forecast models also show a similar pattern.  Right now it doesn’t look like we’ll get hammered but a bit of precip every day for an extended period will add up.
The Euro ensemble precip for Pagosa shows an active pattern starting 4 Mar.  The other primary forecast models also show a similar pattern.  Right now it doesn’t look like we’ll get hammered but a bit of precip every day for an extended period will add up.
The Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day precip outlook on the left and 8-14 day precip outlook on the right both indicate potential for above average precip.
The Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day precip outlook on the left and 8-14 day precip outlook on the right both indicate potential for above average precip.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4470 / 198610-21 / 1942

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Mark will take over tomorrow.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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