Scattered snowshowers starting tomorrow afternoon…

The Pagosa Weather Fox was hunting for breakfast near one of our snow rulers… Pic taken 2/15/2022

Tuesday – 15 Feb 2022 – 12:40pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp yesterday afternoon was 48 and the low this morning was 17 – cloud cover kept us a little warmer than I expected. The peak wind at the airfield was 8mph.

Precip in the last 24 hours… None

Forecast discussion…

The pesky upper level ridge has finally weakened and moved to our east. Upper level southwest flow is increasing ahead of tomorrow’s system and pushing mid and upper level clouds into the region.

An upper level trough will move through Thursday morning and bring us a little bit of snow. I’m seeing a few red flags: 1. The system will be weakening as it moves through. 2. It doesn’t have much moisture. 3. And it may track a little farther south which will put us on the northern fringes of the moisture and storm energy. I’m concerned this system will be a dud for us, but I’m sticking with my forecast.

High pressure will dry us out Friday through Sunday.

Things are lining up nicely for a decent system late Monday through Wednesday next week.

Water vapor satellite this afternoon: Mid and upper level clouds are moving into our area from the southwest. The low is spinning over central CA and doesn’t have much moisture. It’s expected to follow the track of the arrows.

Regional radar this afternoon: This is discouraging - I’d like to see more precip. — *Regional radar this afternoon: This is discouraging – I’d like to see more precip.*

My forecast…

Today… Clouds will gradually increase. Winds this afternoon will peak in the 20-25mph range. Highs will be in the mid-40s to around 50 and lows will be 15 to 25.

Wednesday through Thursday morning… Scattered snowshowers will start in the mountains around sunrise and in the valley in the afternoon. The best chance for snow is late afternoon to sunrise on Thursday. Scattered snowshowers will linger through Thursday morning, especially over the mountains.

Highs will be in the mid to upper 30s and lows will be 10 to 20.

Snowfall amounts…

– Valley: 1-3”

– Mountains: 3-6”

The National Weather Service snowfall through 5pm on Thursday shows 1-2” for Pagosa and up to 6” in our mountains. Note that nearly the entire state is expected to get snow on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Expect occasional poor driving conditions.

*Snowfall is also expected across northern NM. Though amounts are small, driving conditions could be poor for short periods.*

Follow Cotrip and NMRoads for the most current road conditions

Thursday afternoon through Sunday… Clouds will gradually decrease Thursday and then we’ll see mostly clear skies Friday and Saturday. Sunday clouds will start increasing again and winds will pick up in the afternoon.

Highs on Thursday will be in the 30s and lows that night will be -5 to 15. Highs the rest of this period will be in the lower to upper 40s and lows will be in the 5 to 20 range.

Monday through Wednesday… We’ll see more clouds and snow. Right now it looks good for decent snow, but we’re still 6-8 days out so I don’t trust the details.

*NBM snowfall through Wednesday at 11pm indicates 13” in town and 15-20” in our mountains. The last three runs have increased snow amounts a little each time.*

GFS snowfall through Wednesday at 11pm indicates 7.7” in town and 10-15” in our mountains. The last three runs have gone from 13.2” to 13.9” to 7.7”. My questions: Is this a one-time deviation? Or will the other models show a similar trend as we go forward?

*Euro snowfall through Wednesday at 11pm indicates 10.3” in town and 12-18” in our mountains. The last two runs have been consistent. The third run didn’t go out this far.*

Note: These include all snowfall to this point. Reminder, this far out we’re just tracking the general trends, not the specifics. I’ll nail down specifics when we get into the 4-6 day window.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
42	57 / 1981	8	-27 / 1949

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next post will be sometime tomorrow.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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