The Pagosa Weather Fox was hunting for breakfast near one of our snow rulers… Pic taken 2/15/2022
Tuesday – 15 Feb 2022 – 12:40pm
At Stevens Field the high temp yesterday afternoon was 48 and the low this morning was 17 – cloud cover kept us a little warmer than I expected. The peak wind at the airfield was 8mph.
Precip in the last 24 hours… None
The pesky upper level ridge has finally weakened and moved to our east. Upper level southwest flow is increasing ahead of tomorrow’s system and pushing mid and upper level clouds into the region.
An upper level trough will move through Thursday morning and bring us a little bit of snow. I’m seeing a few red flags: 1. The system will be weakening as it moves through. 2. It doesn’t have much moisture. 3. And it may track a little farther south which will put us on the northern fringes of the moisture and storm energy. I’m concerned this system will be a dud for us, but I’m sticking with my forecast.
High pressure will dry us out Friday through Sunday.
Things are lining up nicely for a decent system late Monday through Wednesday next week.
Today… Clouds will gradually increase. Winds this afternoon will peak in the 20-25mph range. Highs will be in the mid-40s to around 50 and lows will be 15 to 25.
Wednesday through Thursday morning… Scattered snowshowers will start in the mountains around sunrise and in the valley in the afternoon. The best chance for snow is late afternoon to sunrise on Thursday. Scattered snowshowers will linger through Thursday morning, especially over the mountains.
Highs will be in the mid to upper 30s and lows will be 10 to 20.
– Valley: 1-3”
– Mountains: 3-6”
Follow Cotrip and NMRoads for the most current road conditions
Thursday afternoon through Sunday… Clouds will gradually decrease Thursday and then we’ll see mostly clear skies Friday and Saturday. Sunday clouds will start increasing again and winds will pick up in the afternoon.
Highs on Thursday will be in the 30s and lows that night will be -5 to 15. Highs the rest of this period will be in the lower to upper 40s and lows will be in the 5 to 20 range.
Monday through Wednesday… We’ll see more clouds and snow. Right now it looks good for decent snow, but we’re still 6-8 days out so I don’t trust the details.
Note: These include all snowfall to this point. Reminder, this far out we’re just tracking the general trends, not the specifics. I’ll nail down specifics when we get into the 4-6 day window.
Pagosa Springs historical data
|Average High||Record High / Year||Average Low||Record Low / Year|
|42||57 / 1981||8||-27 / 1949|
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My next post will be sometime tomorrow.