It was a glorious day up at Wolf Creek!… Pic taken 2/14/2022 by my ski partner Todd
Monday – 14 Feb 2022 – 5:40pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temp this afternoon was 48 and the low this morning was 13. The peak wind at the airfield was 8mph.
Precip in the last 24 hours… None
Forecast discussion…
High pressure will give us dry weather through Tuesday.
A low pressure system will move through Wednesday and Thursday morning and bring us a little bit of snow. I’m seeing a few red flags: The system will be weakening as it moves through. And it may track a little farther south which will put us on the northern fringes of the moisture and storm energy.
High pressure will dry us out Friday through Sunday and then another system looks promising Monday through Wednesday. It’s great to see a more active pattern!
My forecast…
Tonight through tomorrow… Clouds will gradually increase. Winds tomorrow afternoon will peak in the 20-25mph range. Highs will be in the mid-40s to around 50 and lows will be 5 to 20.
Wednesday through Thursday morning… Scattered snowshowers will start in the mountains early Wednesday morning and in the valley around noon. The best chance for snow is late around noon to midnight. Scattered snowshowers will linger through Thursday morning, especially over the mountains.
Highs will be in the mid to upper 30s and lows will be 10 to 20.
Snowfall amounts…
– Valley: 1-3”
– Mountains: 3-6”
Note that nearly the entire state is expected to get snow on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Expect occasional poor driving conditions.
Thursday afternoon through Sunday… Clouds will gradually decrease Thursday and then we’ll see mostly clear skies. Highs on Thursday will be in the 30s and lows that night will be -5 to 15. Highs the rest of this period will be in the lower to upper 40s and lows will be in the 5 to 20 range.
Monday through Wednesday… It looks good for a better round of snow but it’s still too early to get into details.
Block 1 is the Wednesday system. All 50 runs expect snow, and the mean is around 2”. Note that time periods vary quite a bit in the top block. Forecast confidence is high that we’ll get 1-2” of snow but forecast confidence is low for the timing.
Block 2 is next week’s Monday through Wednesday system. 49 out of 50 model runs in the top block expect snow – high forecast confidence. But amounts vary from zero to around 8” – low forecast confidence. Also note that time periods vary quite a bit in the top block – low forecast confidence.
Block 3 is another potential system the last few days of the month. In the top block about 35 out 50 model runs expect snow. Timing is all over the place and amounts vary from zero to 16”. Also note that between systems 2 and 3, some model runs indicate snow. Forecast certainty is very low after system 2.
Summary: I expect 2 systems. The first will move through Wednesday/Thursday morning and the second will move through sometime between next Monday and Wednesday. All I can say after system 2 is that the pattern will stay active and I’ll gladly take an active pattern!
Pagosa Springs historical data
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 42 | 59 / 1989 | 8 | -22 / 1948 |
Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.
My next post will be sometime tomorrow.
– Shawn
