Snow on Wednesday and then more next week!

It was a glorious day up at Wolf Creek!… Pic taken 2/14/2022 by my ski partner Todd

It was a glorious day up at Wolf Creek!… Pic taken 2/14/2022 by my ski partner Todd

Monday – 14 Feb 2022 – 5:40pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp this afternoon was 48 and the low this morning was 13.  The peak wind at the airfield was 8mph.

Precip in the last 24 hours…  None

Forecast discussion…

High pressure will give us dry weather through Tuesday.

A low pressure system will move through Wednesday and Thursday morning and bring us a little bit of snow. I’m seeing a few red flags: The system will be weakening as it moves through. And it may track a little farther south which will put us on the northern fringes of the moisture and storm energy.

High pressure will dry us out Friday through Sunday and then another system looks promising Monday through Wednesday.  It’s great to see a more active pattern!

Water vapor satellite this afternoon: After being clear most of the day, clouds are increasing from the west. The clouds in the Four Corners region and southern NV are mid and high level clouds with no precip.  The clouds over northwest NV and western ID are dropping scattered precip.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon: After being clear most of the day, clouds are increasing from the west. The clouds in the Four Corners region and southern NV are mid and high level clouds with no precip.  The clouds over northwest NV and western ID are dropping scattered precip.

My forecast…

Tonight through tomorrow… Clouds will gradually increase.  Winds tomorrow afternoon will peak in the 20-25mph range. Highs will be in the mid-40s to around 50 and lows will be 5 to 20.

Wednesday through Thursday morning… Scattered snowshowers will start in the mountains early Wednesday morning and in the valley around noon. The best chance for snow is late around noon to midnight. Scattered snowshowers will linger through Thursday morning, especially over the mountains.

Highs will be in the mid to upper 30s and lows will be 10 to 20.

Snowfall amounts…

– Valley: 1-3”

– Mountains: 3-6”

The National Weather Service snowfall through 5pm on Thursday shows 1-2” for Pagosa and up to 6” in our mountains.  Note that nearly the entire state is expected to get snow on Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Expect occasional poor driving conditions.
The National Weather Service snowfall through 5pm on Thursday shows 1-2” for Pagosa and up to 6” in our mountains. 

Note that nearly the entire state is expected to get snow on Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Expect occasional poor driving conditions.

Thursday afternoon through Sunday… Clouds will gradually decrease Thursday and then we’ll see mostly clear skies.  Highs on Thursday will be in the 30s and lows that night will be -5 to 15. Highs the rest of this period will be in the lower to upper 40s and lows will be in the 5 to 20 range.

Monday through Wednesday… It looks good for a better round of snow but it’s still too early to get into details.

NBM snowfall through Wednesday at 11pm indicates 10.3” in town and 12-16” in our mountains.  Note: This includes all snowfall to this point.  Again, this far out we’re just tracking the general trends, not the specifics.  I’ll nail down specifics when we get into the 4-6 day window.
NBM snowfall through Wednesday at 11pm indicates 10.3” in town and 12-16” in our mountains.  Note: This includes all snowfall to this point.  Again, this far out we’re just tracking the general trends, not the specifics.  I’ll nail down specifics when we get into the 4-6 day window.
Euro ensemble 24hr snowfall to 1 March.  I prefer ensemble models when looking at periods beyond 5-7 days.  In the top block is 24hr snowfall amounts for 50 different runs of the Euro forecast model. In the bottom block is the mean, control, and spread.  Times are in zulu/GMT and read left to right with the most current time on the left. 

Block 1 is the Wednesday system.  All 50 runs expect snow, and the mean is around 2”.  Note that time periods vary quite a bit in the top block. Forecast confidence is high that we’ll get 1-2” of snow but forecast confidence is low for the timing. 

Block 2 is next week’s Monday through Wednesday system. 49 out of 50 model runs in the top block expect snow – high forecast confidence.  But amounts vary from zero to around 8” – low forecast confidence. Also note that time periods vary quite a bit in the top block – low forecast confidence. 

Block 3 is another potential system the last few days of the month.  In the top block about 35 out 50 model runs expect snow.  Timing is all over the place and amounts vary from zero to 16”.  Also note that between systems 2 and 3, some model runs indicate snow.  Forecast certainty is very low after system 2.
Euro ensemble 24hr snowfall to 1 March.  I prefer ensemble models when looking at periods beyond 5-7 days.  In the top block is 24hr snowfall amounts for 50 different runs of the Euro forecast model. In the bottom block is the mean, control, and spread.  Times are in zulu/GMT and read left to right with the most current time on the left.

Block 1 is the Wednesday system.  All 50 runs expect snow, and the mean is around 2”.  Note that time periods vary quite a bit in the top block. Forecast confidence is high that we’ll get 1-2” of snow but forecast confidence is low for the timing.

Block 2 is next week’s Monday through Wednesday system. 49 out of 50 model runs in the top block expect snow – high forecast confidence.  But amounts vary from zero to around 8” – low forecast confidence. Also note that time periods vary quite a bit in the top block – low forecast confidence.

Block 3 is another potential system the last few days of the month.  In the top block about 35 out 50 model runs expect snow.  Timing is all over the place and amounts vary from zero to 16”.  Also note that between systems 2 and 3, some model runs indicate snow.  Forecast certainty is very low after system 2.

Summary: I expect 2 systems. The first will move through Wednesday/Thursday morning and the second will move through sometime between next Monday and Wednesday.  All I can say after system 2 is that the pattern will stay active and I’ll gladly take an active pattern!

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4259 / 19898-22 / 1948

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next post will be sometime tomorrow.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Picture of Shawn Pro

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
Get Pagosa Weather Updates

Enter your email address to receive notifications of new posts by email.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use                  Privacy Policy

 

© 2024 Pagosa Weathe

Website Design by : Brandon