Snow is on the way today & next week’s system looks good…

Snowshowers are starting to move into the Wolf Creek area… Web cam capture 2/16/2022 at 11:25am

Snowshowers are starting to move into the Wolf Creek area… Web cam capture 2/16/2022 at 11:25am

Wednesday – 16 Feb 2022 – 11:50am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp yesterday afternoon was 48 and the low this morning was 19.  The peak wind at the airfield was 16mph. We hit 21mph a few times in O’Neal Park.  Wolf Creek summit hit 47mph a few times yesterday.

Precip in the last 24 hours…  None

Forecast discussion…

The low pressure will stay to our south.  And the best moisture will miss us to the north.  So we’re stuck in no-man’s land and won’t get much snow.

High pressure will dry us out Friday through Sunday.

Things are lining up nicely for a decent system Monday through Wednesday, and possibly into Thursday next week.

Infrared satellite this morning: This is a complicated pattern that does not favor us.  The low will stay well to our south and doesn’t have much moisture.  Tomorrow morning the trough will move through from the northwest – bad trajectory for us.  So the best moisture will stay to our north and the best storm energy will say to our south.
Infrared satellite this morning: This is a complicated pattern that does not favor us.  The low will stay well to our south and doesn’t have much moisture.  Tomorrow morning the trough will move through from the northwest – bad trajectory for us.  So the best moisture will stay to our north and the best storm energy will say to our south.
Regional radar this morning: Despite the notorious data gaps, radar lines up pretty well with satellite. It doesn’t give me a warm fuzzy.
Regional radar this morning: Despite the notorious data gaps, radar lines up pretty well with satellite. It doesn’t give me a warm fuzzy.

My forecast…

Today through Thursday afternoon… Spotty light snowshowers are falling over the mountains peaks as I type, and they’ll slowly increase through the afternoon. The best chance for occasional snowshowers is between late afternoon and sunrise and then they’ll linger over the mountains until sunset tomorrow.

Highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be low teens to low 20s.

Snowfall amounts…

– Valley: 0.5” to 2”

– Mountains: 3” to 6”

The National Weather Service snowfall through 11am on Thursday shows 1-2” for Pagosa and up to 6” in our mountains.  Note that nearly the entire state is expected to get snow. Driving conditions will be poor at times.
The National Weather Service snowfall through 11am on Thursday shows 1-2” for Pagosa and up to 6” in our mountains.  Note that nearly the entire state is expected to get snow. Driving conditions will be poor at times.
Snowfall is also expected across northern NM. Though amounts are small, driving conditions could be poor for short periods.
Snowfall is also expected across northern NM. Though amounts are small, driving conditions could be poor for short periods.

Follow Cotrip and NMRoads for the most current road conditions

Thursday night through Sunday… Clouds will gradually clear out Thursday night and then we’ll see mostly clear skies Friday and Saturday. Sunday clouds will start increasing again and winds will pick up in the afternoon.

Highs on Thursday will be in the 30s and lows that night will be -5 to 15. Highs the rest of this period will be in the lower to upper 40s and lows will be in the 5 to 20 range.

Monday through Thursday morning… We’ll see more clouds and snow.

Rough first guess snow amounts…

Valley: 6-12”

Mountains: 18-30”

As always, I’ll get more specific with amounts and timing as the data gets better. Right now I’m being conservative with snowfall amounts, especially for the mountains.  Mountain-top temps will be chilly during this storm cycle – mostly low to mid-teens. This will result in dry, powdery, 20/1 ratio snow.  Most models are showing 1.5″ to 2” of liquid equivalent for the mountains which could add up to 30″ to 40” of snow.  Because we’re still 5-8 days out, I’m leery of those amounts at this time.

NBM snowfall through Thursday at 11am indicates 11.5” in town and 18-24” in our mountains.  The last three runs have been consistent with amounts but have fluctuated with timing.
NBM snowfall through Thursday at 11am indicates 11.5” in town and 18-24” in our mountains.  The last three runs have been consistent with amounts but have fluctuated with timing.
GFS snowfall through Thursday at 11am indicates 9.6” in town and 15-20” in our mountains.  The last three runs have had 13.1”, 15,2”, and 9.6” – inconsistent with both amounts and timing.
GFS snowfall through Thursday at 11am indicates 9.6” in town and 15-20” in our mountains.  The last three runs have had 13.1”, 15,2”, and 9.6” – inconsistent with both amounts and timing.
Euro snowfall through Thursday at 11am indicates 8.5” in town and 12-18” in our mountains.  The last three runs have had 13.2”, 14.5”, and 8.5” – inconsistent with both amounts and timing. I don’t like that drop to 8.5”
Euro snowfall through Thursday at 11am indicates 8.5” in town and 12-18” in our mountains.  The last three runs have had 13.2”, 14.5”, and 8.5” – inconsistent with both amounts and timing. I don’t like that drop to 8.5”

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4259 / 19818-24 / 1949

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

I have a busy day tomorrow but hope to get a post out in the afternoon or the evening.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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2 Responses

    1. Bruce, Shawn will have a detailed forecast out this afternoon or later tonight. It is going to be a widespread system with heavy snow across southwest Colorado and into northern Arizona. Any chance you can leave on Monday?

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