Snowshowers are starting to move into the Wolf Creek area… Web cam capture 2/16/2022 at 11:25am
Wednesday – 16 Feb 2022 – 11:50am
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temp yesterday afternoon was 48 and the low this morning was 19. The peak wind at the airfield was 16mph. We hit 21mph a few times in O’Neal Park. Wolf Creek summit hit 47mph a few times yesterday.
Precip in the last 24 hours… None
Forecast discussion…
The low pressure will stay to our south. And the best moisture will miss us to the north. So we’re stuck in no-man’s land and won’t get much snow.
High pressure will dry us out Friday through Sunday.
Things are lining up nicely for a decent system Monday through Wednesday, and possibly into Thursday next week.
My forecast…
Today through Thursday afternoon… Spotty light snowshowers are falling over the mountains peaks as I type, and they’ll slowly increase through the afternoon. The best chance for occasional snowshowers is between late afternoon and sunrise and then they’ll linger over the mountains until sunset tomorrow.
Highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be low teens to low 20s.
Snowfall amounts…
– Valley: 0.5” to 2”
– Mountains: 3” to 6”
Follow Cotrip and NMRoads for the most current road conditions
Thursday night through Sunday… Clouds will gradually clear out Thursday night and then we’ll see mostly clear skies Friday and Saturday. Sunday clouds will start increasing again and winds will pick up in the afternoon.
Highs on Thursday will be in the 30s and lows that night will be -5 to 15. Highs the rest of this period will be in the lower to upper 40s and lows will be in the 5 to 20 range.
Monday through Thursday morning… We’ll see more clouds and snow.
Rough first guess snow amounts…
Valley: 6-12”
Mountains: 18-30”
As always, I’ll get more specific with amounts and timing as the data gets better. Right now I’m being conservative with snowfall amounts, especially for the mountains. Mountain-top temps will be chilly during this storm cycle – mostly low to mid-teens. This will result in dry, powdery, 20/1 ratio snow. Most models are showing 1.5″ to 2” of liquid equivalent for the mountains which could add up to 30″ to 40” of snow. Because we’re still 5-8 days out, I’m leery of those amounts at this time.
Pagosa Springs historical data
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 42 | 59 / 1981 | 8 | -24 / 1949 |
Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.
I have a busy day tomorrow but hope to get a post out in the afternoon or the evening.
– Shawn
2 Responses
Eager to get your report for next Weds as we start driving to So. Calf. #160 across or right down to I-40 for snow concerns? Thanks!
Bruce, Shawn will have a detailed forecast out this afternoon or later tonight. It is going to be a widespread system with heavy snow across southwest Colorado and into northern Arizona. Any chance you can leave on Monday?