Ditto weather with a chance for snow next week.

Cirrus

Some decorative cirrus clouds drifted by Pagosa Peak this morning. Photo © 2022-Mark Langford

2-9-22 1:15pm update…

The low this morning at Stevens Field was 11 and the high so far today has been 47. The high yesterday was 49 degrees, indicating that our warming trend continues. There was no precipitation recorded in our area.

NW flow and a weak wave are adding a few cirrus clouds to our sky today, but our dry weather will continue as a ridge of high pressure remains parked over the west coast. By this weekend, the ridge will weaken, drift east, as a trough digs into the Pacific NW, potentially setting us up for a chance for snow next week. The hope is for an upper-level low to form in a position that will switch our mid-level winds into a SW flow. If this all comes together, look for snow to fall from Wednesday-Friday of next week.

NBM
The latest NBM model run is predicting 3 inches of snow for next Wednesday-Friday. We are still a week away from this system so there will be fluctuations in each model run over the next few days.
Screenshot 2022 02 09 122746
The latest GFS model run is predicting around 5 inches of snow from Wednesday-Thursday of next week.
Euro
The latest EURO model is predicting 5 inches of snow between Wednesday and Thursday evening.

Upper low
The latest EURO 500mb upper-level wind forecast from today is still predicting an upper-level low to form off the southern California coast next week, then drift east. This would put us in a nice SW flow to produce some snow. We shall see! FYI: These are upper-level winds, not surface winds…only the pilots need to worry about these!

My forecast…

For those of you who like to “hear” our forecast, call 877-841-0247.

The rest of today: A few high clouds with a high in the upper 40’s. South winds 5-10 mph.

Tonight: Clear with lows ranging from the single digits to the teens.

Thursday-Tuesday: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 40’s and lows in the single digits to low teens.

We could see a chance for snow coming back into our forecast by next Wednesday.

My next post will be on Friday unless something completely meteorologically random occurs.

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data for February 9th.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4156/ 19966-34/ 1949

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