Snowpack, drought update and still a chance for snow!

Snowpack

My Pagosa Weather yardstick and 4-foot measuring stick combo that I attached to the cattle fence behind our home are still registering 25 inches of snowpack as of this post despite the warm afternoons!

2-11-22. 2:30pm update…

The low this morning at Stevens Field was 14 and the high so far today has been 47. We could see some temps in our area exceed 50 degrees this afternoon! There was no precipitation recorded in our area.

A cold front and trough are giving the front range some snow today and tomorrow. For us, only a tiny chance for some light snow in the mountains tonight and slightly cooler temps on Saturday. By this weekend a trough digs into the Pacific NW, potentially setting us up for a chance for snow next week. The hope is for an upper-level low to form in a position that will switch our mid-level winds into a SW flow. If this all comes together, look for snow to fall from Wednesday-Thursday of next week. As of this post, 1-2 inches for the valley and 3-6 inches of snow for the mountains seems reasonable.

StormTotalSnowWeb1 CO 1
The current storm that is impacting the front range will only bring a few snow showers to our mountains and drop our high temps on Saturday to the lower 40’s.
Screenshot 2022 02 11 135613
The latest NBM model run is predicting around 2 inches of snow from Wednesday-Thursday of next week for our area. Unfortunately, of this post, I think 1-2 inches for us and 3-6 inches for the mountains is all that we may see from next week’s storm.
Drought
The latest drought update from yesterday shows a tiny bit of progress for our area. Most of Archuleta County is now in a “moderate drought” with only slim area in the SW part of the county in “severe drought”.
Screenshot 2022 02 11 075655
Today’s snowpack vs average (1991-2020 Median). Pagosa Springs is circled in red and the dot is Wolf Creek. We need more snow!
273524493 307908078037041 65124455614613021 n
Unfortunately, it looks like La Niña will be sticking around through April. Typically, La Niña pattern typically means less snow and rain for us. Hopefully a “neutral” (shown in gray) pattern will develop by this summer so that we see a normal monsoon.

My forecast…

For those of you who like to “hear” our forecast, call 877-841-0247.

The rest of today: Sunny with a high in the upper 40’s to low 50’s. South winds 5-10 mph.

Tonight: Clear with lows ranging from the single digits to the teens. Our mountains could see a few snow showers.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with highs in the low to mid 40’s and lows in the single digits to low teens.

Sunday-Tuesday: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 40’s and lows in the single digits to low teens.

Wednesday-Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for snow showers. Lows in the teens and highs in the upper 30’s to low 40’s.

Shawn will do the next post on Sunday unless something completely meteorologically random occurs.

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data for February 11th.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4259/ 19706-21/ 1949

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