Scattered snowshowers tomorrow evening…

Meet Oink!  Oink is now about four months old and has been getting love and training from wonderful foster parents.  I met Oink and she’s affectionate and loves to play.   Let’s find this cutie a forever family!  Please call the Pagosa Springs Humane Society at (970) 731-4771 for more information.

Meet Oink!  Oink is now about four months old and has been getting love and training from wonderful foster parents.  I met Oink and she’s affectionate and loves to play.   Let’s find this cutie a forever family!  Please call the Pagosa Springs Humane Society at (970) 731-4771 for more information.

Monday – 24 Jan 2022 – 6:10pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp this afternoon was 44 and the low this morning was 9. I saw temps down to -2 this morning.The peak wind at the airfield was 10mph.

Precip in the last 24 hours…  None

Forecast discussion…

An upper level system will move through the area Tuesday night.  Storm energy will be decent but there isn’t much moisture.  Plus it’s moving through from the northwest which isn’t a good trajectory for us. 

A similar system might try to move through on Thursday.  I’m skeptical of this one and don’t expect much.

Ridging over much of the western US will keep us dry through the weekend.

The long range pattern continues to look more active the first week of February.

Water vapor satellite this afternoon: Patches of mid and upper level clouds are moving through the area from the northwest. The low spinning over ID will move south and is expected to move into northern NM Tuesday night.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon: Patches of mid and upper level clouds are moving through the area from the northwest.  The low spinning over ID will move south and is expected to move into northern NM Tuesday night.

My forecast…

Tuesday… We’ll see more clouds and a few spotty snowshowers, especially over the mountains beginning around sunset and into the early morning hours. Highs will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s and lows will be 0 to 20.

Snowfall amounts…

– Valley: zero to a half inch

– Mountains: 2-3”

This evening’s run of the NBM snowfall to Wednesday at 5am has bumped up snowfall amounts to 1.8” in town and 2-3” in our mountains. Because of the lack of moisture and north to south trajectory, I think we’ll be lucky to get a half inch in the valley.
This evening’s run of the NBM snowfall to Wednesday at 5am has bumped up snowfall amounts to 1.8” in town and 2-3” in our mountains. Because of the lack of moisture and north to south trajectory, I think we’ll be lucky to get a half inch in the valley.

Wednesday and Thursday… We’ll see partly cloudy skies and spotty snowshowers, especially over the mountains during the day on Thursday. Highs will be in the mid-30s to lower 40s and lows will be 0 to 20.

Snowfall amounts…

– Valley: “a flake an acre” – technical forecasting term for very little

– Mountains: 1-2”

NBM snowfall to Thursday at 11pm shows 2.4” in town, or another 0.6” of snow. It also shows up to 6” in our mountains, or another 2-3”. I’m skeptical of this system.
NBM snowfall to Thursday at 11pm shows 2.4” in town, or another 0.6” of snow.  It also shows up to 6” in our mountains, or another 2-3”.  I’m skeptical of this system.

Friday through Sunday… Expect lots of blue sky with occasional patches of mid and high level clouds.  Highs will be lower to mid-40s and lows will be 5 to 20.

Long range… Forecast models continue to agree that the pattern will get more active the first week of February.

NBM snowfall to 4 Feb at 11am shows 8.7” in town and up to 16” in our mountains. I’m using this as an example and for continuity. It’s too far out to trust snow amounts, but it’s good to see the forecast models continue to expect a more active pattern the first week of February.
NBM snowfall to 4 Feb at 11am shows 8.7” in town and up to 16” in our mountains.  I’m using this as an example and for continuity.  It’s too far out to trust snow amounts, but it’s good to see the forecast models continue to expect a more active pattern the first week of February.
The Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day precip outlook is leaning towards “above average” precip which lines up with what I see.
The Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day precip outlook is leaning towards “above average” precip which lines up with what I see.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3853 / 19861-33 / 1917

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Unless something pops up or changes, my next post will be on Wednesday.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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One Response

  1. I do the Mountain Paws Dog Sled tours mostly in the Upper Blanco Basin and occasionally East Fork. It really helps me to keep an eye on the weather. This page was recommended to me by a friend. Thanks for doing this!

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