Another weak system will move through tomorrow afternoon…

Frosty has two and a half inches of new snow on his nose and hat!... Pic taken 1/26/2022

Frosty has two and a half inches of new snow on his nose and hat!… Pic taken 1/26/2022

Wednesday – 26 Jan 2022 – 11:00am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp in the last 24 hours was 40 and the low this morning was 21. The peak wind at the airfield was 20mph around 10pm last night.

Precip in the last 24 hours…  It’s nice to get some snow! Reports vary from 1.5” in Log Park off Fawn Gulch (thanks Marlys!) to 4” off 84 in Ponderosa Pines (thanks Krissy!).  Most reports were in the 2-3” range.  Wolf Creek reported 3” – an “equal opportunity storm”.

Thanks a bunch for the snow reports and pictures!

CoCoRaHS 24-hour snowfall reports range from 1.2” to 3.8”
CoCoRaHS 24-hour snowfall reports range from 1.2” to 3.8”
Wolf Creek pass cam on 1/26/2022 at 10:10am
Wolf Creek pass cam on 1/26/2022 at 10:10am

Forecast discussion…

I forecasted up to a half inch of snow – what happened?  The system tracked a little closer and slower than I expected.  Plus temps from the surface up to the lower parts of the clouds were cold (Wolf Creek summit temps ranged from 5 to 10 overnight).  This is ideal for light, fluffy snow that accumulates easily – snow ratios ranged from 15/1 to 25/1 in the valley and it’s near 30/1 up at Wolf Creek.

A similar system will move through tomorrow afternoon, but it will have less moisture.

Ridging over much of the western US will keep us dry through Monday.

The next system will move through Tuesday or Wednesday.  It looks decent, but the details are still unclear.

Water vapor satellite this morning: Last night’s system is moving through central NM and will continue to move east. Our next little system is moving south through ID and will take a similar path.  It has very little moisture.
Water vapor satellite this morning: Last night’s system is moving through central NM and will continue to move east. Our next little system is moving south through ID and will take a similar path.  It has very little moisture.

My forecast…

Wednesday… Clouds will gradually break up but won’t completely clear out.  Highs will be in the lower to upper 30s and lows will be 5 to 20.

Thursday… Clouds will increase with scattered snowshowers in the afternoon and evening. Then clouds will clear overnight, temps will drop, and patchy fog will develop in low-lying areas. Highs will be in the mid-30s to lower 40s and lows will be -5 to 15.

Snowfall amounts…

– Valley: zero to a half inch

– Mountains: 1-3”

NWS 72-hour snowfall focused on our area shows less than an inch in the valley and 2-3” in our mountains
NWS 72-hour snowfall focused on our area shows less than an inch in the valley and 2-3” in our mountains
26 Jan 2022 am NWS snowfall
NWS snowfall for the state… Note that the Front Range and entire I-25 corridor is expected to get 1-3” so be careful if you’re driving in that area tomorrow

Friday through Monday… Expect lots of blue sky with occasional patches of mid and high level clouds.  Highs will be lower to mid-40s and lows will be 5 to 20.

Tuesday and Wednesday… I expect snow, but don’t trust the details (amounts and timing). I’ll nail down the details in my next post.

NBM snowfall to 3 Feb at 5am shows 5.2” in town and 6-12” in our mountains. Forecast models have been inconsistent with snowfall amounts and timing so the details are still sketchy.
NBM snowfall to 3 Feb at 5am shows 5.2” in town and 6-12” in our mountains. Forecast models have been inconsistent with snowfall amounts and timing so the details are still sketchy.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3952 / 19704-25 / 1917

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Unless something pops up or changes, my next post will be on Friday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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