A few snowflakes on Tuesday but dry most of the week…

Incredible morning for a hot air balloon ride! A huge thanks to Austin and the crew at Rocky Mountain Balloon Adventures... Pic taken 1/22/2022

Incredible morning for a hot air balloon ride!  A huge thanks to Austin and the crew at Rocky Mountain Balloon Adventures… Pic taken 1/22/2022

Saturday – 22 Jan 2022 – 6:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp this afternoon was 41 and the low this morning was 16. I saw temps down to 5 this morning.The peak wind at the airfield was 11mph just after midnight last night when the trough moved through.

Precip in the last 24 hours…  A trace of snow fell in parts of the valley.  Wolf Creek reported 2”.

Forecast discussion…

Most of the storm energy and moisture from last night’s system stayed north and east of us.

Another weak system lacking moisture will move through CO from the northwest on Tuesday. Strong ridging to the west will keep us dry the rest of the week.

The long range pattern continues to look more active the first week of February.

Water vapor satellite this afternoon: A low is spinning over southwest AZ and won’t impact us.  The giant ridge to our west is forcing weak systems to move through CO from the northwest – not a good trajectory for us.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon: A low is spinning over southwest AZ and won’t impact us.  The giant ridge to our west is forcing weak systems to move through CO from the northwest – not a good trajectory for us.

My forecast…

Tonight through Monday… We’ll see lots of sun with occasional patches of mid and upper level clouds.  Highs will be in the lower to mid-40s and lows will be 5 to 20.

Tuesday… We’ll see more clouds and a few spotty snowshowers. Highs will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s and lows will be 0 to 20.

Snowfall amounts…

– Valley: a dusting

– Mountains: 1-2”

NBM snowfall to Wednesday at 5am shows a half inch in town and up to 2” in our mountains – similar to the weak system that moved through last night
NBM snowfall to Wednesday at 5am shows a half inch in town and up to 2” in our mountains – similar to the weak system that moved through last night

Wednesday through Friday… Expect lots of blue sky with occasional patches of mid and high level clouds.  Highs will be upper 30s to mid-40s and lows will be 5 to 20.

Long range… Forecast models continue to agree that the pattern will get more active, but they keep delaying it.  Now it’s looks more like the 31st or 1st. Keep those positive vibes going and do those snow dances!

Euro 15-day ensemble snowfall indicates a more active pattern starting around the 31st or 1st  and the model expects 9” of snow by 6 Feb.  That far out I track general trends, not specifics, but I like the trend!
Euro 15-day ensemble snowfall indicates a more active pattern starting around the 31st or 1st  and the model expects 9” of snow by 6 Feb.  That far out I track general trends, not specifics, but I like the trend!

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3757 / 19811-31 / 1955

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Unless something pops up, my next post will be on Monday.

Thanks again to Austin and his crew at Rocky Mountain Balloon Adventures!

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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