A little bit of snow tomorrow evening and then again on Tuesday…

Morning fog and frosted trees in O”Neal Park... Pic taken 1/20/2022

Morning fog and frosted trees in O”Neal Park… Pic taken 1/20/2022

Thursday – 20 Jan 2022 – 5:15pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp this afternoon was 39 and the low this morning was 13. I saw temps down to 3 this morning.The peak wind at the airfield was 8mph.

Precip in the last 24 hours…  There were a couple of spotty showers over the mountains yesterday afternoon, but snow accumulation was minimal.

Forecast discussion…

A small low pressure system and associated trough are currently over WA, OR, and southern ID and will move through our area Friday night.  The system has decent storm energy, but lacks moisture.  Unfortunately the trajectory is also not favorable for us, but we will see some snow.  A similar system will move through Monday night and Tuesday with similar results. 

The long range pattern continues to look more active starting the end of the month and into the first week of February.

Water vapor satellite this afternoon: A small low pressure system is spinning over WA and OR and is expected to move south-southeast into AZ by early Saturday morning. It lacks moisture but will have decent storm energy when it moves through our region.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon: A small low pressure system is spinning over WA and OR and is expected to move south-southeast into AZ by early Saturday morning. It lacks moisture but will have decent storm energy when it moves through our region.
Radar this afternoon:  Precip associated with the low and trough is scattered across southern ID and will move southeast with the low.
Radar this afternoon:  Precip associated with the low and trough is scattered across southern ID and will move southeast with the low.

My forecast…

Friday afternoon through Saturday morning… We’ll see more clouds and snowshowers. The best chance for precip is sunset tomorrow to midnight.  Scattered snowshowers are possible for a few hours on either side of that period, especially over the mountains.   Highs will be in the mid-30s to lower 40s and lows will be 0 to 20.

Snowfall amounts…

– Valley: up to 1”

– Mountains: 2” to 4”

NBM snowfall to Saturday morning at 11am… It shows 0.8” in town and 3-5” in our mountains.
NBM snowfall to Saturday morning at 11am… It shows 0.8” in town and 3-5” in our mountains.

Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon… We’ll see lots of sun with occasional patches of mid and upper level clouds.  Highs will be in the mid-30 to lower 40s and lows will be 0 to 20.

Monday night and Tuesday… We’ll see more clouds and scattered snowshowers. Forecast confidence is still low for this system.

Snowfall amounts…

– Valley: up to an inch

– Mountains: 2” to 4”

NBM snowfall to next Wednesday at 11pm… It shows 1.9” in town and 6-8” in our mountains.  The other side of The Divide is favored as mountain-top flow will be out of the northeast for a portion of these two systems. Note that this includes all snowfall to this point.
NBM snowfall to next Wednesday at 11pm… It shows 1.9” in town and 6-8” in our mountains.  The other side of The Divide is favored as mountain-top flow will be out of the northeast for a portion of these two systems. Note that this includes all snowfall to this point.

Long range… Forecast models continue to agree that the pattern will get more active starting 29 or 30 Jan.  Keep those positive vibes going and do those snow dances!

Euro 15-day ensemble snowfall hints at the two week systems Friday night and Tuesday.  Then the pattern gets more active starting around the 30th and the model expects 10” of snow by 4 Feb.  That far out I track general trends, not specifics, but I like the trend!
Euro 15-day ensemble snowfall hints at the two weak systems Friday night and Tuesday.  Then the pattern gets more active starting around the 30th and the model expects 10” of snow by 4 Feb.  That far out I track general trends, not specifics, but I like the trend!

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3856 / 19863-21 / 1960

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Unless something pops up or changes, my next post will be on Saturday. And I expect to report a little bit of new snow!

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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