A few snowflakes tonight and then a few more Friday night…

2/4 of the Pagosa Weather team enjoying our winter paradise… Pic taken 1/17/2022

Tuesday – 18 Jan 2022 – 4:55pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp this afternoon was 41 and the low this morning was 10. I saw temps down to -2 this morning.The peak wind at the airfield was 8mph.

Precip in the last 24 hours… None

Forecast discussion…

Two weak troughs with limited moisture will move through in the next 36 hours. A slightly stronger system will move through Friday night and Saturday morning. Another system is possible next Tuesday and Wednesday – the details are still sketchy on this one.

Water vapor satellite this afternoon: There is a weak low moving through central AZ and it will move through NM in the next 24 hours. There is also a weak trough in central OR and northern CA that will follow a similar track and move through tomorrow evening. Neither system has much moisture or storm energy.

*Radar this afternoon: There are scattered weak showers over AZ associated with the low. The showers will move east with the low.*

My forecast…

Today through Saturday… More clouds and spotty snowshowers are possible tonight through Wednesday evening, and then Friday afternoon and Saturday morning. Highs will be in the mid-30s to lower 40s and lows will be 0 to 20.

Snowfall amounts tonight through tomorrow evening…

– Valley: a dusting

– Mountains: up to 1”

Snowfall amounts Friday afternoon to Saturday at noon…

– Valley: up to 1”

– Mountains: 2” to 4”

*NBM snowfall to Wednesday at 11pm… It shows a dusting of snow in the higher parts of the valley and up to 2” in the mountains.*

*NBM snowfall to Saturday morning at 11am… It shows 1.3” in town and up to 4” in our mountains. Note that this includes all snowfall to this point.*

Tuesday and beyond… Another system is possible Tuesday or Wednesday, but forecast confidence is low at this point. The long range ensemble models continue to show a more active pattern starting at the end of the month and into the first week of February.

*NBM snowfall to next Wednesday at 11pm… It shows 2.4” in town and up to 6” in our mountains. Note that this includes all snowfall to this point.*

Euro ensemble 24-hour snowfall to the evening of 2 Feb: I prefer ensembles when the pattern is weak or when looking beyond 7 days. In the top block are snowfall amounts for 24-hour periods for 50 model runs. The bottom block shows the mean and the control 24-hour snow amounts. The graph is read left to right and is in Zulu/UTC time, with the most current time on the left and the distant time on the right. The black rectangle is the first system. Roughly half of the 50 model runs (in the top block) have precip and the precip amounts are low. We’ll hardly see anything. The blue rectangle is for the second system Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. All but 5 of the 50 model runs have precip and the amounts have increased a little. I like this trend and expect measurable snow. The green rectangle is for system number 3 next Tuesday night and Wednesday. This model is fairly confident we’ll get another system, but the other models don’t agree. This is a week out so I’ll watch the trend for the next few days before I get my hopes up. The yellow rectangle at the end of the period starting on 31 Jan is getting more promising but the models continue to show it occurring later. It’s common for models to move things along too quickly and then to adjust. Other models are also picking up a similar trend. — Euro ensemble 24-hour snowfall to the evening of 2 Feb: I prefer ensembles when the pattern is weak or when looking beyond 7 days. In the top block are snowfall amounts for 24-hour periods for 50 model runs. The bottom block shows the mean and the control 24-hour snow amounts. The graph is read left to right and is in Zulu/UTC time, with the most current time on the left and the distant time on the right.

*The black rectangle is the first system. Roughly half of the 50 model runs (in the top block) have precip and the precip amounts are low. We’ll hardly see anything.*

The blue rectangle is for the second system Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. All but 5 of the 50 model runs have precip and the amounts have increased a little. I like this trend and expect measurable snow.

The green rectangle is for system number 3 next Tuesday night and Wednesday. This model is fairly confident we’ll get another system, but the other models don’t agree. This is a week out so I’ll watch the trend for the next few days before I get my hopes up.

The yellow rectangle at the end of the period starting on 31 Jan is getting more promising but the models continue to show it occurring later. It’s common for models to move things along too quickly and then to adjust. Other models are also picking up a similar trend.

Euro ensemble 500mb anomaly to the morning of 2 Feb – each chart is for a 1-day period: 500mb is roughly 18,000ft and is a good level to track the overall storm pattern. “Warm” colors of yellow and orange indicate ridging and quiet weather while “cold” colors of blue and green indicate troughing and an active pattern. It shows multiple weak systems moving through our region within the next 7 days. The last couple of charts starting 30/31 Jan show troughing in our area. Other models are showing a similar trend. When I compare this trend to my last post I see that the models are slightly more aggressive during the first 7 days and then have backed off a day or two on the active pattern at the end of the period. — Euro ensemble 500mb anomaly to the morning of 2 Feb – each chart is for a 1-day period: 500mb is roughly 18,000ft and is a good level to track the overall storm pattern. “Warm” colors of yellow and orange indicate ridging and quiet weather while “cold” colors of blue and green indicate troughing and an active pattern.

It shows multiple weak systems moving through our region within the next 7 days. The last couple of charts starting 30/31 Jan show troughing in our area. Other models are showing a similar trend. When I compare this trend to my last post I see that the models are slightly more aggressive during the first 7 days and then have backed off a day or two on the active pattern at the end of the period.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
37	53 / 1944	3	-30 / 1984

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As long as the weather is quiet, I’ll do a post every other day. My next post will be on Thursday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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