Might see a snowflake or two this week…

Pretty sunrise colors over the Eagle peaks!… Pic taken 1/16/2022

Sunday – 16 Jan 2022 – 10:00am

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The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp in the last 24 hours was 40 and the low this morning was 7. I saw temps down to -4 this morning.The peak wind at the airfield was 6mph.

Precip in the last 24 hours… None

*Weather Underground temps at 7:19am this morning ranged from -1 to 16. The cold spots got down to -4.*

Forecast discussion…

A rex block has set up off the West Coast and is preventing systems from moving into the western US. The action for the next 7-10 days will be in the eastern US. A couple of weak, disorganized, moisture-starved systems will try to move through the Four Corners region, but we’ll hardly notice.

Water vapor satellite this morning: The main branch of the jet stream is to our north. The ridge across AZ and into NV will prevent us from getting moisture from the southwest. A low is spinning off the coast and there’s a ridge north of the low – this is called a rex block. Weather systems are forced around the block. These patterns can persist for long periods.

My forecast…

Today through Saturday… There will be lots of blue sky with occasional patches of mid and upper level clouds. A few more clouds and a few spotty mountain snowshowers are possible Tuesday night, Wednesday night, and then Friday afternoon and Saturday. Lucky spots in the mountains could get an inch of snow. Highs will be in the upper 30s to mid-40s and lows will be 0 to 20.

*Euro snowfall out to 10 days, the evening of 25 Jan: It expects a dusting over the higher parts of the county. Other models indicate nearly an inch. That’s hardly anything for a 10-day period.*

Euro ensemble 24-hour snowfall to the evening of 30 Jan: I prefer ensembles when the pattern is weak and when looking beyond 7 days. In the top block are snowfall amounts for 24-hour periods for 50 model runs. The bottom block shows the mean and the control 24-hour snow amounts. The graph is read left to right and is in Zulu/UTC time, with the most current time on the left and the distant time on the right. The blue rectangle is the first potential system. Roughly half of the 50 model runs (in the top block) have precip and the precip amounts are low – forecast confidence is low that we’ll see anything. The green rectangle is for the second system Friday afternoon into Saturday. Again, only about half of the 50 model runs have precip and the amounts are low. Forecast confidence is low that we’ll see anything. The red rectangle at the end of the period starting late on 29 Jan gives a little more hope. More of the 50 models have precip and the amounts are a little higher. The mean in the bottom block is nearly 2”. It isn’t much, but it is a favorable trend. Other models are also picking up a similar trend. — Euro ensemble 24-hour snowfall to the evening of 30 Jan: I prefer ensembles when the pattern is weak and when looking beyond 7 days. In the top block are snowfall amounts for 24-hour periods for 50 model runs. The bottom block shows the mean and the control 24-hour snow amounts. The graph is read left to right and is in Zulu/UTC time, with the most current time on the left and the distant time on the right.

The blue rectangle is the first potential system. Roughly half of the 50 model runs (in the top block) have precip and the precip amounts are low – forecast confidence is low that we’ll see anything.

The green rectangle is for the second system Friday afternoon into Saturday. Again, only about half of the 50 model runs have precip and the amounts are low. Forecast confidence is low that we’ll see anything.

The red rectangle at the end of the period starting late on 29 Jan gives a little more hope. More of the 50 models have precip and the amounts are a little higher. The mean in the bottom block is nearly 2”. It isn’t much, but it is a favorable trend. Other models are also picking up a similar trend.

Euro ensemble 500mb anomaly to the evening of 30 Jan – each chart is for a 6-hour period: 500mb is roughly 18,000ft and is a good level to track the overall storm pattern. “Warm” colors of yellow and orange indicate ridging and quiet weather while “cold” colors of blue and green indicate troughing and an active pattern. This shows ridging over the western US and troughing over the eastern US until the end of the period. The last couple of charts starting 29 Jan show troughing in our area. Other models are showing a similar trend. There is zero forecast confidence 2 weeks out but the trend gives me hope that the pattern will get more active towards the end of the month or beginning of next month. — Euro ensemble 500mb anomaly to the evening of 30 Jan – each chart is for a 6-hour period: 500mb is roughly 18,000ft and is a good level to track the overall storm pattern. “Warm” colors of yellow and orange indicate ridging and quiet weather while “cold” colors of blue and green indicate troughing and an active pattern.

This shows ridging over the western US and troughing over the eastern US until the end of the period. The last couple of charts starting 29 Jan show troughing in our area. Other models are showing a similar trend. There is zero forecast confidence 2 weeks out but the trend gives me hope that the pattern will get more active towards the end of the month or beginning of next month.

I’ll include similar products in my next post so we can see how the trend holds up.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
39	63 / 1944	3	-31 / 1947

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As long as the weather is quiet, I’ll do a post every other day. My next post will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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