Pretty sunrise colors over the Eagle peaks!… Pic taken 1/16/2022
Sunday – 16 Jan 2022 – 10:00am

The past…
At Stevens Field the high temp in the last 24 hours was 40 and the low this morning was 7. I saw temps down to -4 this morning.The peak wind at the airfield was 6mph.
Precip in the last 24 hours… None

Forecast discussion…
A rex block has set up off the West Coast and is preventing systems from moving into the western US. The action for the next 7-10 days will be in the eastern US. A couple of weak, disorganized, moisture-starved systems will try to move through the Four Corners region, but we’ll hardly notice.

My forecast…
Today through Saturday… There will be lots of blue sky with occasional patches of mid and upper level clouds. A few more clouds and a few spotty mountain snowshowers are possible Tuesday night, Wednesday night, and then Friday afternoon and Saturday. Lucky spots in the mountains could get an inch of snow. Highs will be in the upper 30s to mid-40s and lows will be 0 to 20.


The blue rectangle is the first potential system. Roughly half of the 50 model runs (in the top block) have precip and the precip amounts are low – forecast confidence is low that we’ll see anything.
The green rectangle is for the second system Friday afternoon into Saturday. Again, only about half of the 50 model runs have precip and the amounts are low. Forecast confidence is low that we’ll see anything.
The red rectangle at the end of the period starting late on 29 Jan gives a little more hope. More of the 50 models have precip and the amounts are a little higher. The mean in the bottom block is nearly 2”. It isn’t much, but it is a favorable trend. Other models are also picking up a similar trend.

This shows ridging over the western US and troughing over the eastern US until the end of the period. The last couple of charts starting 29 Jan show troughing in our area. Other models are showing a similar trend. There is zero forecast confidence 2 weeks out but the trend gives me hope that the pattern will get more active towards the end of the month or beginning of next month.
I’ll include similar products in my next post so we can see how the trend holds up.
Pagosa Springs historical data
Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
39 | 63 / 1944 | 3 | -31 / 1947 |
Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.
As long as the weather is quiet, I’ll do a post every other day. My next post will be on Tuesday.
– Shawn