Potential for TWO FEET of additional snow by New Years!…

It was a glorious Christmas morning!... Pic taken 12/25/2021

It was a glorious Christmas morning!… Pic taken 12/25/2021

Sunday – 26 Dec 2021 – 10:00am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp in the last 24 hours was 35 and the low this morning was 29. The peak wind at the airfield so far this morning has been 39mph.  Wolf Creek is consistently gusting to 65mph this morning. The temp at the top is 14 which equals a wind chill of -13. It’s yucky up there!

Precip in the last 24 hours… It’s snowing and blowing in the Pagosa Springs area as I type. We measured nearly a half inch of new snow just north of Turkey Springs.  Wolf Creek reported 1” of new snow this morning.

26 Dec 2021 am Wolf Creek Pass cam2
Expect poor driving conditions on Wolf Creek Pass today

Forecast discussion…

I see three more systems through New Years, each bringing more snow!

We should get a break starting on the 2nd of January.

Water vapor satellite this morning: We’ll catch the tail end of that trough as it moves trough this afternoon.  We’ll see scattered snowshowers and gusty winds through the day.
Water vapor satellite this morning: We’ll catch the tail end of that trough as it moves trough this afternoon.  We’ll see scattered snowshowers and gusty winds through the day.
Radar this morning: There are scattered showers across much of the western US.  As always, the Four Corners radar donut hole keeps us from seeing stuff in our area.
Radar this morning: There are scattered showers across much of the western US.  As always, the Four Corners radar donut hole keeps us from seeing stuff in our area.

My forecast…

Today… We’ll see occasional snow, blowing snow, poor visibility, and gusty winds. Snow will taper off to scattered showers by this evening. Highs will be in the upper 20s to low 30s and lows will be in the teens. Winds will peak in the 35-45mph range in the valley and 60-75mph in the mountains.

Snowfall…

– Valley: 2-4”

– Wolf Creek: 10-15”

*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a WINTER STORM WARNING for our mountains above 8,500ft. 7-14” of snow is likely with locally higher amounts above 10,000ft.  Winds 55-65mph are likely with higher gusts along ridge lines.  The warning is valid until 5am tomorrow (Monday) morning. ***

*** The Colorado Avalanche Information Center has issued an AVALANCHE WARNING for our mountains valid until 27 Dec at 8am. ***

NWS snowfall to tomorrow morning at 6am indicates 3-4” in the Pagosa Springs area.
NWS snowfall to tomorrow morning at 6am indicates 3-4” in the Pagosa Springs area.
NBM snowfall to tomorrow morning at 11am shows 1.8” for Pagosa and up to 18” for our mountains.
NBM snowfall to tomorrow morning at 11am shows 1.8” for Pagosa and up to 18” for our mountains.

Monday through Wednesday morning… I expect two rounds of decent snow with a little lull between.  Snow will ramp up Monday evening and fall pretty good much of Monday night.  During the day on Tuesday we’ll get a lull with scattered snow showers.  Then snow will ramp up again Tuesday evening and fall pretty good much of Tuesday night. Highs will be in the mid-20s to lower 30s and lows will be 10 to 20. Winds will peak Monday night in the 30-35mph range.

Snowfall…

– Valley: 6-12”

– Mountains: 20-30”

26 Dec 2021 am NWS 72hr snowfall
NWS 72hr snowfall to Wednesday morning shows 13” in town and 40” at Wolf Creek
NBM snowfall to Wednesday at 11am shows 12.4” for Pagosa Springs and up to 40” in our mountains.
NBM snowfall to Wednesday at 11am shows 12.4” for Pagosa Springs and up to 40” in our mountains.

** Note: These products include all snowfall to this point. Subtract the differences between the similar maps above to get the potential snowfall for this period.. **

Thursday… We’ll get a little break with scattered snowshowers. Highs will be in the mid-20s to lower 30s and lows will be 10 to 20. Winds will peak less than 20mph.

Snowfall…

– Valley: 1-2” and it will be spotty

– Mountains: 3-6”

Friday and New Years… Another good round of snow. I’ll tackle snowfall amounts in tomorrow post.

NBM snowfall through 1 Jan at 11pm shows 30.8” for Pagosa Springs and up to 65” in our mountains.
NBM snowfall through 1 Jan at 11pm shows 30.8” for Pagosa Springs and up to 65” in our mountains.

** Note: This includes all snowfall to this point. Subtract the differences between the similar map above to get the potential snowfall for that period. Example 12.4″ above subtracted from 30.8″ in this map indicates a potential for 18.4″ of snow during this period. **

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3856 / 19802-30 / 1911

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next post will be tomorrow morning.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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