Merry Christmas! More snow is on the way…

Snow peak

A very White Christmas for all of us in Pagosa Springs! Photo © 2021-Mark Langford

12-25-21: 10am update…

I’m not sure if Stevens Field lost their power, but they have not recorded a reading since yesterday afternoon. Looking at other sensors, the high was in the mid 30’s yesterday for that area and the low as been in the upper 20’s this morning.

Those of us who have cleaned out our COCORAHS gauges and melted the snow have reported 0.64-0.87 of liquid as of 9am. Snowfall reports have ranged from 1.5 inch to 9.5 inches (at Shawn and Arleen’s home). Wolf Creek Ski area reports 19 inches of snow over the past 24 hours and a storm total of 33 inches!

Screenshot 2021 12 25 084401
COCORAHS melted precipitation reports as of 9am this morning.

Screenshot 2021 12 25 084657
COCORAH snowfall reports as of 9am this morning

After a lull today, an approaching shortwave will once again shift our mid-level winds into the SW, bringing in more snow over the next 24 hours and beyond. While there could be a few snow showers during the day, the next snow event begins tonight around midnight and will continue through Sunday night. Look for very snowy conditions on Sunday with winds gusting to over 40mph. After a slight pause in the activity on Sunday night, another storm moves through on Monday. A “perma-trough” off California will remain in place all week, giving us continued snow chances.

3:30pm update…We now have a Winter Storm Warning for elevations above 8500 feet (for those of us at 7500-8000 feet I would also consider this something to watch out for as well).

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM MST MONDAY ABOVE 8500 FEET… * WHAT…Moderate to heavy snowfall and very strong winds expected. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 14 inches with locally higher amounts above 10000 feet. Winds 55 to 65 mph and likely higher above 12000 feet. * WHERE…Grand and Battlement Mesas, West Elk and Sawatch Mountains and Southwest San Juan Mountains. * WHEN…From 2 AM Sunday to 5 AM MST Monday.

3:30pm Update: We now have a Winter Storm Warning for Wolf Creek Pass.

..WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM MST MONDAY… * WHAT…Heavy snow and widespread blowing and drifting snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 15 inches. Winds gusting as high as 75 mph. * WHERE…Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet and Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet. * WHEN…From 2 AM Sunday to 5 AM MST Monday. * IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The cold wind chills as low as 25 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

Avalanche Warning through midnight:

Avalanche Warning issued December 24 at 7:09AM MST by NWS Denver CO THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE COLORADO AVALANCHE INFORMATION CENTER. * WHAT…Avalanche Warning * WHERE…CAIC Forecast Zones: Aspen, Gunnison, Grand Mesa, and North and South San Juan Zones * WHEN…Beginning 6:00AM Friday December 24. Expires at 11:59 PM Friday December 25. * IMPACTS…Very dangerous avalanche conditions exist in the mountains. Heavy snow and strong winds will result in natural avalanches. Human triggered avalanches are very likely.

Screenshot 2021 12 25 082506
Area that includes an Avalanche Warning.

As of 9:25am Wolf Creek Pass is still open and there are skiers at the ski area.

US160165West 1
Wolf Creek Pass is open as 9am this morning
Screenshot 2021 12 25 084956
After a lull today, an approaching shortwave will once again shift our mid-level winds into the SW, bringing in more snow over the next 24 hours and beyond. A “perma-trough” off California will remain in place all week, giving us continued snow chances.
Screenshot 2021 12 25 084100
Here is the latest 3 day snowfall forecast from the NWS (ends on Tuesday). Circled are Pagosa Springs, Wolf Creek and Chama, NM.
nbm conus colorado total snow 10to1 1640433600 1640437200 1641384000 10
Here is the latest NBM snow model run from this morning through Jan 5th.

My forecast…

For those of you who like to “hear” our forecast, we are currently experimenting with a “dial up and text” forecast. Call 877-841-0247 and give it a try! Let us know what you think…

This afternoon: Partly cloudy with a chance for some snow showers throughout the day. The high will be around freezing. Snow total: 0-1/2 inches for our area and the same for the mountains. Winds will be out of the south 5-10mph.

Tonight-Sunday: Snow moves back in again starting tonight through Sunday evening along with winds gusting to 40mph. Highs will stay below freezing and the low on Sunday will drop to the teens and low 20’s. Snow totals will range from 3-7 inches for our area and 15-25 inches for the mountains.

Monday-Tuesday: More snow, especially on Tuesday. Highs in the 20’s and lows in the teens. Snow totals will range from 5-10 inches for our area and 15-25 inches for the mountains. Winds could gust to 30mph.

WednesdayFriday: More snow with highs in the 20’s and lows in the single digits to the teens.

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data for November 8th.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3858/ 19462-34/ 1990

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Get Pagosa Weather Updates

Enter your email address to receive notifications of new posts by email.

2 Responses

  1. Thanks for keeping us informed. I’m up the road from the airport and at 11pm last night had “11 on the deck railing. It’s the best snow gauge, for real. I guess it came down some overnight, but still looks about the same now. Trees worry me a little. The limbs are really over-burdened right now. Big, tall pines, so I’m hoping just a little wind will shake them a bit and knock some of it off.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use                  Privacy Policy

 

© 2024 Pagosa Weathe

Website Design by : Brandon