Morning view towards the southwest. Mid cloud 5, altocumulus clouds progressively invading the sky – a sign that a system is moving this way. Pic taken 11/23/2021
Tuesday – 23 Nov 2021 – 9:05am
The past…
At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 57 and the low this morning was 20. The cold spots dipped into the lower to mid-teens. The peak wind at the airfield in the last 24 hours was 8mph.
There was no precip in the last 24 hours.
Forecast discussion…
A system will move through tonight and tomorrow giving us more clouds and some precip. The system isn’t well organized so precip will be on the lower end.
Thanksgiving through Sunday ridging and drier northwest flow will give us pleasant weather.
My forecast…
Today to tomorrow night… Clouds will increase through the day. The first spotty showers will develop over the mountains this afternoon and over the valley after sunset. Initially the snow level will be around 8,000ft and then gradually drop to 6,500ft overnight. The bulk of the snow will fall between late this evening and sunrise tomorrow. Spotty showers will linger into tomorrow afternoon in the valley and into the evening over the mountains.
The high temps today will be 50-55 and tonight lows will be in the 20s. It will be cooler tomorrow with highs in the lower to mid-40s and lows Thanksgiving morning will be mostly in the 5 to 15 degree range… brrrr!
Snow amounts:
– Valley: 0.5” to 1.5”
– Mountains: 3-6”
Vorticity, on the left, indicates spinning in the atmosphere. Positive vorticity, the yellows, oranges, and reds, indicates upwards vertical motion and storm energy. In this case there is a trough to the northwest and another to the southwest. Neither are well organized – positive vorticity advection (storm energy) is weak in our area.
500mb flow and moisture, on the right, indicates moist southwest flow into our area – just what we want. Unfortunately the best moisture band is only over us from roughly 11pm to 6am.
** Wolf Creek Pass will be slick tonight and tomorrow. Also keep an eye on I25 from roughly Las Vegas NM to Colorado Springs tomorrow. Raton Pass and Le Veta Pass could both have periods with poor driving conditions. **
Thanksgiving through Sunday… We’ll see quite a bit of sun with occasional periods of mid and high clouds. I don’t expect any precip.
On Thanksgiving highs will be in the lower to upper 40s and lows will be in the upper single digits to the upper teens. Friday through Sunday highs will be in the lower to mid-50s and lows will be the lower teens to lower 20s.
Pagosa Springs historical data
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 45 | 66 / 1943 | 12 | -2 / 1972 |
For those of you who like to “hear” our forecast, we are experimenting with a “dial up and text” forecast. Call 877-841-0247 and give it a try!
I’ll do posts daily through Thanksgiving.
– Shawn
