On track for snow tomorrow night…

Purple morning twilight over Graham Peak. Pic taken 11/22/2021

Purple morning twilight over Graham Peak. Pic taken 11/22/2021

Monday – 22 Nov 2021 – 8:25am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 51 and the low this morning was 19. The cold spots dipped into the lower to mid-teens. The peak wind at the airfield in the last 24 hours was 8mph.

There was no precip in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

Today will be mostly clear as transient ridging moves overhead.

A system will move through Tuesday and Wednesday giving us more clouds and some precip. The system has moderate storm energy and moisture so precip will be on the lower end.

Thanksgiving through Sunday ridging and drier northwest flow will give us pleasant weather.

Water vapor satellite this morning: We’re in the dry spot between northwest flow and southwest flow. The two systems off the coast will merge and move through the region tomorrow night and Wednesday.
Water vapor satellite this morning: We’re in the dry spot between northwest flow and southwest flow. The two systems off the coast will merge and move through the region tomorrow night and Wednesday.

My forecast…

Today… It’s going to be really nice with clear blue skies and high temps in the lower to upper 50s.  Lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

Winds will stay under 20mph.

Tuesday to Wednesday night… Clouds will increase tomorrow afternoon with the first spotty showers developing towards late afternoon. Initially the snow level will be around 8,500ft and then gradually drop to 6,000ft overnight.  The best chance for precip is late Tuesday evening to Wednesday morning. Spotty showers will linger into Wednesday afternoon in the valley and Wednesday evening in the mountains.

The high temps Tuesday will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s and lows will be in the 20s.  It will be cooler Wednesday with highs in the lower to mid-40s and lows mostly in the 5 to 15 degree range.

Snow amounts:

– Valley: around an inch

– Mountains: 3-6”

NWS snowfall to Thursday at 5am shows 0.2” for Pagosa and up to 6” in our mountains.
NWS snowfall to Thursday at 5am shows 0.2” for Pagosa and up to 6” in our mountains.
The NWS 72hr snowfall zoomed into our area shows 0.5” to 1” in the valley and up to 6” in the mountains.
The NWS 72hr snowfall zoomed into our area shows 0.5” to 1” in the valley and up to 6” in the mountains.
NAM forecast radar from 1pm tomorrow to 4pm Wednesday: A solid band of precip moves through our area Tuesday night and then by sunrise Wednesday spotty showers persist through the day.
NAM forecast radar from 1pm tomorrow to 4pm Wednesday: A solid band of precip moves through our area Tuesday night and then by sunrise Wednesday spotty showers persist through the day.

** Wolf Creek Pass will be slick Tuesday night and Wednesday.  Also keep an eye on I25 from roughly Las Vegas NM to Colorado Springs on Wednesday.  Raton Pass and Le Veta Pass could both have poor driving conditions. **

Thanksgiving through Sunday… We’ll see quite a bit of sun with occasional periods of mid and high clouds.  I don’t expect any precip.

On Thanksgiving highs will be in the lower to upper 40s and lows will be in the upper single digits to the upper teens.  Friday through Sunday highs will be in the lower to mid-50s and lows will be the lower teens to lower 20s.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4560 / 198912-8 / 1985

For those of you who like to “hear” our forecast, we are experimenting with a “dial up and text” forecast. Call 877-841-0247 and give it a try!

I’ll do posts daily through Thanksgiving.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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